[TerryDunne]

OK, I think I’ve just seen the best 2023 performance of the Mentor group right there, congratulations!

Given my struggles with US MR, I look at your results with serious envy…without giving away your secret sauce, any suggestions for an Aussie battler?

Nice job Glen!

[TerryDunne]

2023 Year

MOC 1000  26.68%
MOC 2000  (8.09%)
MOC Short (7.36%)
MR 2000     40.68%
Closed        (10.00%) (estimated)

Total            2.12%

My most difficult year so far, so much so that in the end I’m just happy to finish with a (very small) profit. Sadly, I made more $$$ from IB interest than I did trading…

Six systems died this year, four MR systems that had to be put down mid year and two weekly swing systems that back tested great but didn’t survive in real life due to bad fills.

On the positive side, four short systems have been added, which I’m happy with after some teething issues.

For 2024, I’d like to add some replacement MR systems (but they have to make it in back testing through the mid 2023 period) and to continue my so far fruitless search for adequate trend/momentum systems, for diversification more than any other reason.

I hope everyone is still in one piece after a difficult year and that 2024 is kind to your trading and your life!

[TerryDunne]

December 2023

MOC 1000  (0.55%)
MOC 2000  (0.23%)
MOC Short (9.23%)
MR 2000      6.08%
Closed         0.00%

Total            (3.00%)

My new short systems took a caning in the first half of the month. I had been trying to make them operate when my MOC 1000 systems weren’t, so that I had orders every day. Given my general philosophy/approach, this was so, so dumb – I seek to find the best times to trade and then put the pedal to the metal rather than be trading all of the time, so what I tried to do was unnecessary and very, very unprofitable…

Note to self: don’t be a dumbass!

It’s amazing what a change of routine and location can do – a couple of days looking at the view and drinking Margaritas in the Mexican sun and the solution found me! I now feel very good about my short systems.

[TerryDunne]

November 2023

MOC 1000   2.03%
MOC 2000   5.87%
MOC Short  2.45%
MR 2000     1.89%
Closed         0.00%

Total            3.45%

Reminds me of the good old days…

[TerryDunne]

Thanks for the replies gents.

Does the holidays list apply to the ‘Orders’ function or only to Order Clerk (which I’m not yet using)?

How is the list maintained, does it need to be manually updated?

[TerryDunne]

Hi Julian,

No, I didn’t really work out anything, although I got to the right result eventually.

I fiddled with the dates and used the actual date (i.e. 22/11) rather than ‘latest”, so I got the orders to generate.
Then I manually modified the .csv files myself to change the end time to 12.40pm.

This is my first experience of RT where I reckon it isn’t done very well. I’d have thought it would just use the most recent bar to generate the orders, but I guess if it was that easy it would already be fixed by now…

[TerryDunne]

No worries, problem solved.

[TerryDunne]

[TerryDunne]

October 2023

MOC 1000    0.61%
MOC 2000   (1.82%)
MOC Short  (0.42%)
MR 2000     (9.74%)
Closed          0.00%

Total           (1.33%)

Yet another losing month, although this one ‘feels’ better than the previous ones as the second half of the month was positive.

First couple of days of MOC shorts, on R1000 only, and only when I’m not taking signals for MOC R1000 long, so that I can double up on using the $$$.

[TerryDunne]

Well, you mentioned that we weren’t able to get 5% yields from government bonds over the last 20 years, but, now we can. So if they’re going to generate the same returns going forward, then buying Aussie government bonds would be a no brainer in comparison.

I’m not convinced by the focus on drawdowns right now. I know it’s on everybody’s mind at the moment, mine included (17.31% and counting). But a low drawdown isn’t why we were drawn to trading. We aren’t going to be able to use a low drawdown to buy the groceries/property/holidays etc. Of course, we need to generate returns for that.

By the way, nice mention (and fish) in today’s Herald Nick!

https://www.smh.com.au/money/investing/in-defence-of-day-traders-not-all-of-us-are-dumb-money-20231024-p5eeih.html

[TerryDunne]

Is there a reason to think that they will do better than they have in the past going forward?

[TerryDunne]

Hmmm…to (mis)quote a super model, I wouldn’t get out of bed for those returns.

Right now, I could buy 30 year government bonds and get over 5%. Where’s my risk premium?

[TerryDunne]

September 2023

MOC 1000 (2.22%)
MOC 2000 (2.86%)
MR 2000   (14.67%)
Closed         0.00%

Total          (3.48%)

Still black for the year (just)…it would be nice if this were to stop now.
 

[TerryDunne]

Hi Julian,

Can I take you up on your kind offer to let me have your code for testing different systems together.

Thanks again,

Terry

[TerryDunne]

Thanks for the information Julian, it’s really useful.

As I’m still a sceptic…can I ask whether the return live matches the back test return over the same period?

Thanks,

Terry

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