[TerryDunne]

[TerryDunne]

Hi Matthew,

I think your post really highlights how important it is to match systems to individual preferences. For you it seems to be action, for me it’s fear of loss. My disastrous experiences during the GFC mean I’m (not quite) comfortable sitting on the sidelines, but happy to know that my back testing shows draw down no worse than in the mid teens. Almost coincidentally, this seems to maximise return as well, at least for my systems.

Best wishes,

Terry

Regards,

Terry

[TerryDunne]

Hi Julian,

Interesting insight re range expansion triggers, I’ll have to investigate further. I actually have a ‘rule’ with stretch, I will only use ‘major’ fractions (1/4; 1/3; 1/2; 2/3; 3/4; 1), paranoia about curve fitting probably!

I have no idea what ‘YMMV’ is – might need to ask my teenage children

[TerryDunne]

Hi Said,

I’m getting to the point where I’m thinking about a system with no entry criteria at all, just a ranking and a stretch…I’ll let you know how it goes.

Regards,

Terry

[TerryDunne]

Hi Scott,

Your point about different members having wide variation of returns is an important one I suspect. This implies that the Law of Large Numbers applies, so doing as many trades as possible will smooth out this volatility.

However,the more trades done, the less selective one can be and the more damage is done to the ‘edge’…

I have similar numbers to you – only properly live this month, but so far actuals are replicating the matching back test pretty closely, so I’m cautiously optimistic that my back test results are reliable.

I’ve also found that only trading on days where the index is ‘suitable’ really enhances results.

All the best,

Terry

[TerryDunne]

Hi Seth,

I think I’ve miscommunicated. I’m not suggesting that this is even a system, let alone a good one.

My aim was only to compare different stretches. I expect that a proper system would perhaps reduce the difference between the different stretches, but my issue was more about whether a ‘small stretch’ to do more trades or a ‘big’ stretch to do better trades was the best strategy.

Best wishes,

Terry

[TerryDunne]

Sorry, I’ve managed to post this in ‘Welcome’. which was not what I wanted to do…

[TerryDunne]

Hi Seth,

They’re both great tips, thank you!

[TerryDunne]

Thanks for the feedback Seth, I appreciate it!

[TerryDunne]

Hi Seth,

About 120-150 per year, so 2 or 3 per week, for each system. With 4 systems, that’s say 10 per week.

[TerryDunne]

No, off the top of my head my testing is more along the lines of 54% and 1.1:1.

My back testing and actual trades have the same results give or take, it’s just that I only partly invested so CAGR isn’t meaningful this month. I also had only 9 trades for the month (IRL and back testing) as my stretch is substantial. This would have been the case even if fully invested. 2 (of 4) of my MOC systems did no trades at all…I wonder how I’ll be down the track if everyone is killing it and I’m doing only 9 trades in a month.

[TerryDunne]

So, I’ve completed my first month, although as I mentioned funds are not fully allocated. Having seen the spectacular results many have had this month, I sort of wish I’d gone all in right from the start – FOMO – but then I remind myself that I will have plenty of opportunity to make money over the next 25 years.

The other side of that is that it’s very nice to start at a good time…

Anyway, because percentages are a bit meaningless for me at the moment,here are some trade stats

MOC 66% wins and W/L ratio of 2.3:1
MR 60% wins and W/L ratio of 4.2:1

Just trying to iron out a couple of process issues over the weekend and hopefully I’ll be good to go fully invested from Monday.

Best wishes,

Terry

[TerryDunne]

Maybe not a rabbit hole I need to go down right now…sounds like the fruit will be lower hanging elsewhere.

Thanks guys – and sorry to hijack your journal Scott!

[TerryDunne]

I haven’t seen anyone who has made MOC on the ASX work, so I’m putting this is the junk pile.

[TerryDunne]

Hi Seth,

Thanks for the information and sorry to hear about today mate.

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