[TimothyStrickland]

I guess really my allocations are:
20% Real Estate holdings (Multifamily and Creative Deals)
36% Strategic Holds
44% Tactical

[TimothyStrickland]

After seeing this, you are more aggressive than I am. I have about 45% of my portfolio in strategic holds and 55% in tactical.

[TimothyStrickland]

Good info Nick, this gives me some ideas on where I should be looking to allocate my funds. For the buy and hold do you typically just buy the index or is it like trade long term where you pick some strong stocks and hold onto them for a long time?

[TimothyStrickland]

Thanks AMD for making my day

[TimothyStrickland]

Hey Mike. Yes the NDX Momo is a monthly rotational momentum system.

Well, I would say yes if it was a year ago shortly after I started. However, at this point I have always pulled the trigger regardless of what I’m feeling, that is because the course and going through the process have given me that confidence. I used to second guess myself all the time.

I am mostly reporting on it weekly because both of those systems are new, I can go back and look to see what I posted and Nick can view them hopefully catching any problems we may have missed on the development phase.

I believe I was very rigorous when testing these so I do not foresee any issues:
Both Nick and Craig reviewed both systems for logic and coding errors as well as curve fitting
I ran both of them through a walk forward test (watching the drawdowns over a several month period to get a feel for the performance)
I ran multiple explores and backtests to make sure that the explore matched what was in the backtest.
Did several variance testing on each system and the system did not vary a lot, most tests were in 5-10% of initial CAGR and always very profitable.
Did monte carlo simulations ( not as useful but another test I can do)
I only optimized ONE single parameter on both. When I say optimize I mean optimize by finding a flat spot at a general high point in the data. Optimized over the last 5 years
I feel as though I could have also simulated the systems for a year but Nick was pretty confident that I could go live so I went ahead and made the jump.

Hope that helps!

[TimothyStrickland]

Mar 11-15
MR System: +3.1%
NDX Momo: +3.6%

So far it seems like the systems are running as expected. Trades are showing up correctly, performance and volatility is not unusual, will go to monthly reports at the end of this month if it continues.

My MR system is really showing what it can do. with the NDX Momo combined performance this week I am now starting to chew through the massive drawdown I experienced last year, still got a long way to go though.

[TimothyStrickland]

As you mentioned and I did the same thing as well Mike. My first rotational system I ended up curve fitting. After Nick looked at it we decided I should set all my parameters back to the default and try again.

I am sure Nick told you this already but for me I pick ONE thing and one thing only that changes my system the most and optimize that one parameter only. Figure out what that is, every system will be different, in some it was the index filter, in another it was the Stock Filter moving average, in my mean reversion system it was holding period.

I think it is a good exercise what you are doing, play around with each parameter so you have a good idea what your system is doing. For me I have used index filters as high as 270 MA. I do not think the Index Filter would be your biggest system change but who knows!

[TimothyStrickland]

Had a bit of a scare today. I thought my system broke. Luckily it was operator error and Nick helped me get on the path to figuring it out. I wanted to share with everyone as a lesson I learned and maybe help some of the newer folks.

We thought it was because I missed a day of trading! But after looking at Interactive Broker audit report it turns out that I did manage to take trades everyday according to TWS, what I think I screwed up on is when I take a trade I run an exploration on a current date. For instance today I run an exploration from 3/7/2019 – 3/8/2019 and pick the ones that pop in the highest rank that I can actually take, up to XX positions.

When I run a backtest on that same timeframe in the past it shows up different trades which MAKES SENSE because the backtest is grabbing ALL top XX signals thinking I would have no active trades which in fact I would have from the previous day that I didn’t run a backtest on. Either way its my fault. Live and learn, I have to make sure if I am going to spot check my exploration I need to make sure I run the backtest on the period of time I’ve been running the system not just a single day which gives false results.

March 4-8

MR System: -2.6% (Gave back a bit of what the market provided me last month.
NDX Momo: -3.8% (The drawdown continues)(Total drawdown is now -14.5%) Still well within the parameters of the system performance.

[TimothyStrickland]

I could not make the mentor call but I am in the same boat as everyone else and realize that this is part of trading. Getting back in after a big upswing is still somewhat of a psychological challenge, however, I am very conditioned now to know that my system has a positive expectancy over the long haul so I pulled the trigger at the beginning of the month and continue to place my MR trades daily. Without this process is in place that I have learned from my mentors Nick and Craig, I would have never been able to trust my system. Now I trust my system more than my 401k, any hedge fund and even my own gut, that is a big leap for me that I have noticed in the last year. My gut was telling me not to get in at the beginning of the month, I ignored it and pulled the damn trigger.

It is good to know that even Warren Buffet can make mistakes aka Kraft. I had some co-workers laugh at him for his blunder. They were calling him an idiot etc for making such a big mistake. I asked them the question, “How do you think Mr. Buffet was able to get into a position to lose a few billion dollars and still be trading long term?” I got a deer in the headlights look as I always do. No one gets it right all the time but you have to put your chips in in order to get it right at all. At this point, its better to play and lose then to never have played at all. If the market tanks I would have lost money anyway sitting in some mutual fund in my 401k so might as well lose it with a system I have tested and has proven to produce results over the long term!

[TimothyStrickland]

Same for me. Actually I am deeper drawdown now that my momentum systems went live and the market promptly decided to sell-off. Nick’s email was timely, damned if you do, damned if you don’t. Luckily my MR system is off-setting the drawdown a little which is exactly why took it live as well.

[TimothyStrickland]

Nick,

I would love a new thread on shorting a MR. I played around with the short side a bit but I quickly found out that it was harder to make work, that and the comments let me focus on the long side first.

[TimothyStrickland]

Those are some solid returns Scott! That’s a good idea actually, can see the performance of the systems a bit better from a micro perspective.

I agree about trading emotions. I was doing really well until Feb 28th. I did not realize getting back in the market would be such a challenge emotionally. Luckily I have disconnected myself from the money enough to where he gave me pause but I did it anyway.

[TimothyStrickland]

Dustin,

Is your MR system taking lots of trades? Mine just started taking a lot of them around the 2nd week in Feb.

[TimothyStrickland]

Great results on your MOC/MR strategies mate.

[TimothyStrickland]

I ran into a small issue where my NDX Momo nearly matched exactly Nick’s premium portfolio. Didn’t really plan for this so for now I split my capital 50/50 between the momo and MR system until I can get my MOC and WTT online.

[Author]

Posts