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TimothyStricklandMember
Me Four! I got put into the QCOM trade earlier and then got hit with the 20% Nasty. There were a few other MR trades I got hit with that brought the system down past 15% very quickly. Oddly enough this past week in the volatility the MR is recovering some of its losses while the rest of the market goes down.
Based on my index filter I am very close to going on the sidelines again, with a drawdown worse than when I started, unless of course we have some good rallies the next 2 days. Time will tell!
TimothyStricklandMemberMy MR system and Aggressive system seem to be complimenting each other nicely and I have been noting what has been happening. Over the last several weeks the aggressive momentum system has been chugging higher while the mean reversion system has remained flat, week after week but the last 2 days haven’t gone so well for the momentum systems due to downside and volatility. The Mean Reversion system has been crushing it the last couple of days, so I really like the balancing effect of the systems. The last couple of days without my MR system would be a large drawdown but instead its a very small one due to running both. I knew the benefit of the systems on paper but sitting through them when they actually do what they were designed to do is builds more trust in my systems.
TimothyStricklandMembernot VC but my MR system did happen to take several medical stocks earlier this month right before they tanked due to the Healthcare for all proposed plan.
TimothyStricklandMemberMonthly update:
-Live Systems-
MR HFT: +0.1%
NDX Aggressive: +6.4%
SPX Momo: +2.1%YTD:
MR HFT: +0.6%
NDX Aggressive: +15.1%
SPX Momo: +5.8%My MR HFT system got hit by some pretty big nasty drops earlier this month due to the healthcare for all plan announcement (I think). Today most of that was made back as the system got me into a lot of trades and then promptly rallied most of those stocks to close the system about even.
The NDX Momo is no longer in drawdown and now is actually positive after the Oct 2018 drop. XLNX weighed heavily on the other 4 stocks which ended the month positive.
The SPX Momo continues to slowly charge upwards but it is still in drawdown from the Oct 2018 drop and likely will be for a long while.
Overall the account has made back a little over half of all the losses incurred from end of last year.
TimothyStricklandMemberI couldn’t agree more on that point. Both times I have launched a new system the market sold off hard and I went immediately into a stiff drawdown. Its just the nature of the beast! As long as you focus on following your system as it was tested, time and discipline will be your friend. Now that I have multiple systems running, I couldn’t agree more that having multiple systems running is the only holy grail out there. Focus on getting this one done and then once that is up and running, look into starting another one.
TimothyStricklandMemberNick, revisiting this again. For the disruptive businesses, do you backtest those individual stocks as well? . I wouldn’t know exactly which stocks to hold and for how long but I was thinking that if I could create a systematic way to invest longer term, I could do it. I may look into corporate bonds as well, right now any bonds I do is the US Government which doesn’t give very stellar returns.
TimothyStricklandMemberHaha, off to a good start!
TimothyStricklandMemberNice Travis, my systems have similar strategies where I enter bonds on a system exit signal. Generates very small returns but better then losing money from inflation.
TimothyStricklandMemberAs of today I seeded my accounts with new capital from another business. All accounts are still in a drawdown but the NDX Aggressive system is recovering quickly.
TimothyStricklandMemberMonthly update:
-Live Systems-
MR HFT: -3.1%
NDX Aggressive: +7.1% (AMD and LULU were biggest winners)
SPX Momo: +3.8%TimothyStricklandMemberWeekly update
MR HFT: -1.2% About break even for the month. +1.2% YTD
NDX Momo: +4.2% and +3.5% YTD AMD crushed it this week which is where most of the gains came from.TimothyStricklandMemberVery true Glen. Oddly enough I traded discretionary for 2 full years before finding Nick and experienced the roller coaster of emotions each day as I struggled to follow my system. I blew up 2 accounts that way. This path is far easier as I only look at the market first thing in the morning and in the evening when I get home.
TimothyStricklandMemberYes sir. I am located in Fairfax VA. We have investments in Baltimore MD and Chesapeake VA. We did have some property in Alabama but I sold that off last year. Do you buy and hold or fix/flip?
TimothyStricklandMemberSome psychology lessons today. Today my system was telling me to get out of MNST. I was a bit irritated as I just took the trade yesterday. The signal got me in and then this morning the system wants me out. I didn’t understand why, but then I learned that the stock had declined below one of my filters. It made sense to get out but my gut wanted me to stay in as I thought it was going to rally. The temptations to stay in a trade when my system says otherwise is getting less and less especially after following the system as prescribed the stock drops another 4%. This is just one of many times this has happened. Most of the time the system is right and I am wrong and that is exactly why I follow it. I haven’t broken any of my system rules in over a year and do not plan to start now. Because I followed the system it went up another 2% today alone.
TimothyStricklandMemberMike, it may depend on how your system was built. Mine makes a big difference. I think the more positions you are holding the less difference it is going to make (in theory). For instance, my NDX Momo only holds 5 which would be considered an aggressive approach.
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