[MichaelRodwell]

Nick does this mean your account holds USD when flat? You’re not forced to convert back to Aussie?

[MichaelRodwell]

Cool – someone is reading!

Yep, rotational style for the first one. I really needed somewhere to start and focus. Work is pretty busy for me at the moment and requires a lot of travel so the lower admin and operations was appealing.

Luckily my wife is fully on board so when our youngest get a little older she’ll be able to run and maintain trades on a daily basis – worked well in the past when we traded some of Nick’s systems.

Going with the US to start with but a longer term goal is to trade both markets with multiple systems… easy does it for now though!

[MichaelRodwell]

Assuming (dangerous I know) I managed to digest and action everything from my previous call with Nick I now have a bench mark and starting point from which to continue my testing and research.

It feels good to be anchored somewhere and also be anchored in the context of my ability, goals and progress.

To recap, my objective is to design a system with 20%+ annual return and 25% or less MaxDD. Preferably monthly or weekly.

Behold, the bench mark:

Annual Return: 16.09%
Max system DD: 19.50%

Very excited about this

[MichaelRodwell]

Now that my ghastly month of travelling is behind me I can get focused on making progress with my system. The first point of call was to get my code signed off by Craig (thanks Craig) and schedule some time with Nick to discuss next steps.

As a side note, being stuck on a plane for 30+ hours did give me time to tinker with AmiBroker and do a lot of back testing. Most of it was a scatter gun approach but it did give me some appreciation for the levers I can pull and how they effect the outcome.

Being more methodical and purposeful was a topic I spoke with Nick about and I now have a pretty clear set of tests to run to evolve my thinking and understand my system.

[MichaelRodwell]

So each month we’re essentially asking the question “are there any buy signals?” If there are no buy signals (for whatever reason, including the instance that the index filter is down) the positions are exited by virtue of not being bought in the monthly rotation?

[MichaelRodwell]

Thank you Tim. I’m enjoying the challenge! I appreciate the word of encouragement. What you and the other members are doing is an inspiration to me. I’ve pretty much read all of the posts on this board and it’s great to see the collaboration.

Today I’ve spent most of the day in Brisbane airport. Starting early with a double flat white in the Qantas lounge, followed by 2 hours on the tarmac and now back in the lounge where the bubbles are flowing freely.

The upshot, time to work on my system and I’m happy to report the first run is complete. Don’t get me wrong, this is version 1.0 and it’s not tradeable but it’s a start and a platform the build on.

I’ve scheduled my next meeting with Nick to go through 3 things:

1. Quick code check. Because the course didnt focus specifically on rotational systems I want to make sure my understanding of what AB is doing is correct

2. Operation and testing. Get my settings sorted so I can start back testing with some purpose and perspective rather than picking dates our of the air and hoping my settings are correct.

3. Brainstorm a couple of things I could be looking at to improve the system once I’ve confirmed with Nick I have good baseline to work from. This that come to mind from reading the forums:

– Exit criteria, ie, only rotate out of stock if it falls out of the top x, not just the top x positions

– Ranking, without getting fancy, smooth out measure of momentum beyond just taking out gaping stocks. Thanks Said and Brent for your discussion on this in the system graveyard (that place is gold).

So easy does it… one increment at a time. Right now I feel a bit stuck and unable to progress so I will continue my research.

[MichaelRodwell]

Old thread Brent but thanks for posting. Thanks also Said.

The results here are quite close to the goal for my first system which is a monthly rotational system.

[MichaelRodwell]

Thanks Said and Len. Appreciate the advice.

[MichaelRodwell]

Good luck for the go live Tim. Awesome milestone! As much as trading should be boring I’m excited for you!

[MichaelRodwell]

Cool thanks guys. I know a guy who works for Dell and can get laptops at factory price +1%

Both nice machines.

Thanks again

[MichaelRodwell]

I had a chat with Nick today about the path forward. a few things I decided:

1. Pick something to do and do it well. Be thorough and focused. For me, that’s a rotational monthly system. It may change but until I have an adequate reason, that’s where I will spend my time.

2. Stop making assumptions. Stop answering questions that you don’t know the answer for. Code the system, test, adjust.
2(a). Stop trying to figure out a intra-month scale out exit for a monthly rotational system before you have a monthly rotational system. Then, after you have a monthly rotational system probably spend your time doing something more productive.

3. Keep it simple. Change and progress will happen over time. A pretty good system at the end of the 6 months is better than a perfect system that never happens. It’s also better than 20 started systems that never get finished or traded.

4. Set some objectives. Here they are:
– 20% CAGR
– 25% MaxDD
– More to come

Another 2 busy weeks at work and then it’s all ‘systems’ go.

In other news I just go booked in for Noosapalooza! Hope to see you there!

[MichaelRodwell]

Guess he will diversify now to catch up on a little sleep so he doesn’t get capsized by a rouge wave.

[MichaelRodwell]

Would have picked the style as yours Nick – very similar presentation re: graphs, equity lines etc.

Is it a stock template with that logo?

[MichaelRodwell]

This afternoon I completed the theory section of the course.

Mind blown! :woohoo:

In such a short time I have learnt so much.
So many potential pitfalls I am now aware of.

I’m celebrating how far my knowledge has come while ensuring I continue o plug the gaps.

Now with a few weeks of travel ahead of me i’m going to spend some time collecting my thoughts on what system to focus on first and then more longer term how I will plan to structure my trading and portfolio of systems.

By March i’ll take another run at the coding section to consolidate the learning there and then get started with a system of my very own :ohmy:

[MichaelRodwell]

Here is one without the option for full screen mode:
https://edu.thechartist.com.au/guruTasks/7/48-section-3-module-26-performance-metrics-and-assessment/381-correlation-analysis.html

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