[MichaelRodwell]

Account has made some ground back this week: 3.2%. It has felt strange to be in the market and backing myself when most of the traditional index filters are telling others to get out. Of course in the large scheme of things it means nothing but if there was something that was on my mind the most, it was going it alone. Probably because I’m taking ultimate responsibility and backing my unique idea – a first for me.

[MichaelRodwell]

Yep, feel very comfortable with where I’m at. I’ve realised the key for me is understanding.

Understanding why the system is doing what it’s doing. Is it doing what it should be doing (yes!) etc.

I don’t particularly like it but I recognise that obsessing over something that is 100% expected to happen is futile.

Let’s see how it plays out this month.

[MichaelRodwell]

May 2019 Results:

Buy The Bulls Monthly Momentum: -7.79%
The result should have been worse (-10.3%) but I screwed up a couple of positions.

The worst monthly result since January 2005 and the second worse performing month ever (in my testing)

Whoa… way to enter the market.
Of course this was going to happen right? (sorry – please see previous warning)

Like the great Mike Tyson said, “Everyone’s got a plan until they get punched in the face”.

In back testing my system is at about 14% drawdown which is just a couple of points away from the all time high drawdown. So in some respects I’m quite lucky that I missed a fair amount of this action. I also got lucky by screwing up the operation of my system and not taking a couple of trades that would have cost me a 2% more.

My system is also approaching the second longest wait time since last high… It could go on for a lot longer though (according to testing)

My index filter says trade… so come Monday morning trade I will.

Thank you to everyone here for inspiring me to pull the trigger.

[MichaelRodwell]

Thanks for sharing Tim. It’s month one for me and my system smacked me in the face with the worst month since 2004. I kinda got lucky and screwed up the operation of the system and managed to have a couple of positions incorrect so that saved me a percent or 2. Things are about to get interesting for me… Index filter is on and I’m staying in the market when many are switching to cash.

[MichaelRodwell]

It will be interesting to see how the companies in the NDX with exposure to the trade war will fair from a momentum perspective. I’ve noticed a few other names coming up in the ranks while the likes of JD, QCOM etc get hammered.

Going into this drawdown straight off the bat was expected. Murphy’s law… I’m good with it though as Nick said when I launched the system “It’s going to happen so getting it out of the way isn’t a bad thing”.

Another quote I like is from Jerry Parker “what got you into this mess is exactly what will get you out of it…” keep trading and following the system.

[MichaelRodwell]

thanks Glen. I checked it out an its not related but really handy to know!

[MichaelRodwell]

It’s been an interesting couple of weeks experiencing my system in the market. Although I haven’t triggered a market catastrophe I have timed my entry with one of my systems biggest draw downs for a while. Thankfully all of it hasn’t happened in May.

Currently my open equity draw down is 6.27% whereas my system back-test has it at 12%. The max in testing is approx 16% so it will be interesting to see if this checks out. Still a fair way to go before my index filter says get out.

A few things I’ve noticed:
– I must have screwed up my exploration because there is some variance in the positions in my backtest vs my portfolio. I cant figure out how this happened as 8 out of the 10 positions match

– There have been a few positions doing all the damage:
– QCOM -24%
– JD -15%
– CTRP -21%

For me taking 10 positions in the portfolio is probably a good decision as I’m not worried about these at all.

All this is probably a bit premature as its not the end of the month but it was on my mind as I had some time to check on things.

[MichaelRodwell]

Thank you Glen! Plenty to get on here. Thanks for the generosity of your time and knowledge. Hope I can pay it forward!

I’ll let you know how it goes!

[MichaelRodwell]

This week so far my mind has mainly been focused on work as I travel around China.

It’s been a good thing though as I have missed a lot of the talking heads and noise regarding the markets.

In other news my WTT is just about completed so I am going to try and find some metrics that test out well for the ASX market.

If anyone has found parameters particularly useful I’d love to get a starting point

[MichaelRodwell]

I’d like to think that the launch of my system triggered the volatility and sell of in the US markets but its was probably Trump playing chicken with China.

On the first couple of days I checked the market about 20 times which was a good exercise because I got pretty bored with it know that I wouldn’t be making and changes until the end of the month.

So rather than hyperventilating and being concerned with the inconsequential randomness I’m now spending my time working on a Weekend Trend Trader variant to put to work on the Aussie market.

More to come!

[MichaelRodwell]

After small hiccup (IB deleting my trading permissions) I’m back up and running.

Just got my first set of orders placed for my new system:

Buy The Bulls Monthly Momo

Top 10 Positions Ill be taking

Ticker Last Close
CDNS 68.54
QCOM 86.37
CTRP 43.54
JD 30.2
CMCSA 43.42
CSCO 55.58
MDLZ 51.64
SBUX 77.52
SNPS 120.09
CERN 66.7

will report back in at the end of the month and see how its gone.

[MichaelRodwell]

Hi Said,

Just a heads up. Be sure to double check your trading permission in your new account. Mine got screwed up and I’ve had to delay trading my new system while I re-apply… this is after the move to IB Australia.

[MichaelRodwell]

Hey Travis,

Thanks for this.

I’ve made the same decision regarding sticking to long term strategies and think I will need to make a few interventions to stop myself watching the market. Good to see

[MichaelRodwell]

Thanks guys. I have felt a pretty big smack in the face from the market in the past and managed to get on with it. There was always a way I could justify that it was not 100% my doing though. It feels pretty vulnerable being 100% responsible for the system and owning the outcome – good, bad or indifferent. I can definitely feel the shift from problem solving and putting the market puzzle together to the psychological challenge of owning it and taking action. Taking action is one of my strengths though, so come May 1, the trigger will be pulled!

[MichaelRodwell]

Public Service Announcement: I’ll be launching my system at the start of May.

Some have said that that the introduction of a new system is enough to trigger a mass market sell off – you’ve been warned!

I’m equal parts excited and nervous about the milestone of going live with my first system. The journey to this point has been very rewarding – the end of the beginning might even be in sight!

Buy The Bulls Monthly Momo:

1/04/2004 -> 31/12/2018

url=https://ibb.co/v4hfhC4][/url]

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