[MichaelRodwell]

On the call I asked Nick about the predictive value of the futures markets immediately prior to the open.

The conclusion was that there is some predictive value in what the futures are doing but it’s difficult to back test and use this information in systematic framework. There’s complexity of intraday data, start and end date of sessions and real-time trading at or just prior to the open.

Nick mentioned a system where you look at the futures and anticipate a gap up at open and then fade the move.

Both SPX and NDX gapped up and faded as Nick anticipated.

[MichaelRodwell]

Nice call fade of the gap up Nick.

Happened to be up for the open and sensibly sat on the sidelines and observed

[MichaelRodwell]

VPN currently working fine.

Probably should have one anyway.

Check out ExpressVPN or Nord.

Added bonus for Aussies is access to worldwide content (Netflix, iPlayer etc)

[MichaelRodwell]

Buy The Bulls Monthly Momo
** May -7.79
** June +6.1

**YTD -2.17

[MichaelRodwell]

Thats kind of comforting… I’m getting one or two months with massive returns (100%+) which are skewing things.

[MichaelRodwell]

I havent had much luck impacting the drawdown with more positions. Just decreases the return. I’ve looked into ASX200 but getting some funky results which I want to take a look at with Craig next week to make sure nothing is up with my programing or the way I’m running it in AB. I’m not particularly bothered, just want to improve it if I can. As it is, if it checks out with Craig and the big boss I would happily put it in the market.

[MichaelRodwell]

Thanks Scott. Appreciate the feedback. I’m comfortable with it, just want to hunt down any obvious areas I might have missed. You’re right, on portfolio basis it’s slightly better.

[MichaelRodwell]

With my US Rotational System now running I have decided to spend some time developing a system for the ASX. Originally I started down the path of a Weekend Trend Trader variant but after a discussion with Nick I changed tact and went back to the trusty monthly rotational.

I’m quite pleased with the results so far considering all I have done is taken my US system and simplified it even more.

I’m using 5 positions on the ASX 100 and measuring the momentum with ROC and ADX. As I have written about before I have been taking a different approach with my index filter which uses a combination of SMA and EMA’s to get me in and out of the market.

Can anyone make any suggestions on areas of investigation to lower draw-down?

I feel my current results are within my expectations but the close I am to 1:1 CAR:MDD the more comfortable I feel.

[MichaelRodwell]

Hi Drew,

I have successfully got through the process.

Where abouts are you based? Different rules for different countries but being Aussie provides a fair few barriers. The good news is once its set up you don’t need to go through to many changes in the future (hopefully).

As much as it will be painful, using the help line from IB can have results. Just expect to make a lot of calls. In my experience not all the staff know whats going on either.

Most of what you see in your screenshot is US Govt Gobble-de-gook/ anti fraud/ anti corruption stuff which they should be able to guide you through.

Good luck!

[MichaelRodwell]

One of the things that screwed me up is they changed my account numbers. Keep an eye out for that especially when you’re asking them to look at your account and they are telling you its all fine. ITS NOT ALL FINE!

[MichaelRodwell]

HAHAH… thought you might like that one!

You poor thing… all those unhappy people not taking responsibility for themselves!

[MichaelRodwell]

Nice job Tim. Good inspiration for me to step up to the plate when my system calls upon me. I was down close to 8% in May but just tried to put the blinkers on as much as possible.

[MichaelRodwell]

Thanks for sharing that Tim. I’m looking forward to the article too. Since I started asking questions here is where my head is at right now.

This time around my mindset on trading has been far better than in the past. I realised that previously:

– I wanted desperately to make money and hadn’t truly taken responsibility for my decisions. I traded Nick’s systems and only in hindsight I realised I blamed him for losses or attributed him the glory for the wins. To me this didnt feel right when I was still the one pulling the trigger. I determined I was better off giving the money to someone to invest/ trade or doing everything for myself (with a mentor!)

– I didnt really have any idea what I was doing and coming off 7 very successful property deals I kept comparing my property investing results to my trading. Clearly stupid. In addition to comparing I created FOMO on the property side when the point of trading was to diversify. I’d lost sight of what my objective was

– I’ve learnt a lot about myself since I started trading (got married, had a couple of kids, moved countries etc) and realised that money is not the most important thing. As long as I have what I deem to be enough, its just a background issue that isn’t to be worried about. This doesn’t limit my drive but it allows me to accept where I’m at.

– Right now I’m trading my retirement account. Psychologically this is easier for me because of the following:
– Even though it’s very liquid, I can’t touch the money for at least another 30 years
– I could hand the money over to a fund but the performance is poor and the drawdowns large. So if i run into some big drawdowns its nothing that I wouldnt have to experience if someone else was running my account. In addition, because the money is tied up, theres nothing to do with it but keep trading.
.
In regards to going to cash/ index filter. I benefited from my momentum system staying in the market and am at equity ATH as of typing. I can’t help but feel good about this but I keep trying to remind myself that the thing to feel good about is following my system.

[MichaelRodwell]

Nick – you had already been trading for over 15 years. What was the trigger to get on the couch?

[MichaelRodwell]

Re: Brent Penfold’s systems… He reports 30+ years of results for some and implies the setups he uses are persistent and haven’t changed.

[Author]

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