[LEONARDZIR]

November 2021

US MOC +0.4%
USMOMO +0.58%
TLT -3.02%

[LEONARDZIR]

Interesting problem for last Friday in my MOC. With the large market downdraft I received a margin violation message from IB. They liquidated some of my stocks intraday and about 15% of my portfolio between 5-10 minutes before the close. Although my Chartist API was connected to IB none of my MOC orders were carried out. When I finally checked IB after the close I found myself long a fair number of positions. Luckily bailed out of longs this mornings with the gap up in the markets.
Still not sure why my MOC orders weren’t executed.
Spent the weekend tweaking my MOC code to reduce the number of positions. Also will make it a rule to check the MOC before the close if their is heightened volatility. Lesson learned.

[LEONARDZIR]

Julian,
The other 100% is Nick!

[LEONARDZIR]

I’ve always found trading/investing 80% technical and 100% mental.

[LEONARDZIR]

October 2021

MR Multisystem -1.71%
MOC Pending
TLT +5.59%
US Momo +6.35%
WTT(US) +1.8%

Cut my allocation way back in the MR Multisystem because of very poor results this year with a drawdown far exceeding historical drawdown results. Put that cash into US MOC which I started trading at the end of the month.
Started trading WTT in US.

[LEONARDZIR]

Important discussion. I keep the bulk of my investments at Vanguard. I gave my wife one instruction. If I am incapacitated she is to call Vanguard and close all positions and arrange to have their advisory service run all the accounts. They have have a pretty reasonable charge for their service. I have 2 IB accounts. One trades an MOC which will automatically close at the end of the day and one with multiple MR systems which a friend will close for me.
Terry, hope you continue to improve.

[LEONARDZIR]

Nick,
My error -3.3% on TLT

[LEONARDZIR]

Julian, helps to have a shared experience .

[LEONARDZIR]

Sept 2021

US MR MULTISYSTEM -17.47%
US MOMO -1.99%
TLT +7.87%

Total Portfolio -3.3%

My shortterm trading results are pretty lousy. I’ve kept shortterm trading a very small percentage of my portfolio. Considering the monthly drawdown is way greater than any monthly drawdown in the past 10 years mulling over if the systems are broken and whether to continue shortterm trading. Was doing ok when I just stuck to a single MOC system instead of the 6 systems I currently trade.
Added WTT in the R3000 at the end of this month.
Really not too perturbed about shortterm trading results since having a very good year so far with all my other systems.

[LEONARDZIR]

True.

[LEONARDZIR]

I may be wrong about this but it seems to me you could probably keep an MR system and MOC at 4:1 in the same account if you also trade short systems in the same account. The short systems would balance out the longs. You have to figure appropriate position sizes.

[LEONARDZIR]

Julien,
I have given some thought to your response. I think you are right. I am judging the short term trading which has been in a rut compared to my momentum/trending systems which have been extremely profitable. Will keep trading short term and wait for more advantageous markets.

[LEONARDZIR]

For example down 4% this week so far and was up 4.9 % last week.

[LEONARDZIR]

Julien,
Thanks for the reply. My short term systems are extremely volatile now despite the low volatility of the spy and I have a pretty decent drawdown but your point is well taken.
Thanks

[LEONARDZIR]

Nick,
I am using Realtest for backtesting and Order entry for 6 short term systems. The actual results are different from the backtest both positive and negative. I asked Marsten why and at least part of the explanation is that the systems do not correct for selection bias. He maintains over time the results will match the backtest.
The difficulty I am having with short term trading is that the bulk of my systems are intermediate term and I have had a great 2020 and so far an excellent 2021 with the intermediate systems. So I am not really complaining about my overall results but wondering whether it is worth my time to continue to trade short term.

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