[LachlanPhillips]

March:

20%G 2,1%
TLT 4,65%
DISC -6,03%
Total return: -0,92%

Q1: Max DD: 9,14%
Ending VAMI: 5,12%

[LachlanPhillips]

February was extremely challenging month in specially the discretionary trading . Aussie bank has couple very strong days and CBA start to making new highs; so i had to scale out my short positions.The CBA price spend more and more time above the 50 and 100MA.(Pension and superannuation funds destroying retirement savings when buying aussie banks at the current price).
Also my coffee position stopped out ( my trailing stop).Only the gold miners made some profit; but the last couple days they start to make some pullback.
I believe slowly i start to understand why so much easier to follow a systematic trading systems.
The 20percentgrowth system made 3,11% in February; and we have been almost 5% up couple days ago.
So if i compare the time, energy what i invest and spend to make some result in discretionary trading and what i spend in the systematic approach; and look at the result?!
So i made my decision the next double digit (>10% DD) i will increase my systematic trading allocation (from 40% tradelongterm 20% and 20percentgrowth 20%) to 60%.
I am pretty sure we going to have couple very difficult month with the systematic trading approach in the future but still looks to me much more comfortable to trade them; then every day by day the discretionary trading what challenging me more and more physically and mentally.

[LachlanPhillips]

I use Dell XPS to and Dell inspiron (back up).What really make the difference its the RAM size (min. 16GB) but my XPS use 32GB RAM.Day to day operation or monthly rotation system i believe 16GB enough if You really just using the laptop for trading.
If You using the laptop backtesting, downloding norgate data and amibroker and any other applications, and You do not want to wait to long because the different application slowing down the system i higly recommend 32GB RAM (RAM price by the way reserve your laptop value).We are living the cloud computing and crypto currency age.

[LachlanPhillips]

Usually December between March i am very busy with my full time job.The last 2 month it was very volatile for me.First i made significant profit on the short side, but after 25 of December the market turned around.I am very happy the systematic trading strategies went to defensive mode.I had enough time to think through what the next step for me to prove my trading results.I had bit of time to read the forum, and i find the 20percentgrowth strategy or idea.Looks to me its very simular style of momentum investing, but the strategy using etfs.Also trading short term bonds etfs as well.So i compare and i look at how is look like if i use that system with the trade longterm system as well 50-50% together.Average return around 25%/year the DD is low 10s.Forty quater around 6 negativ; and only 1 quater have more than 10% DD.
Nick mention it earlier when have a significant DD thats the time to increase the asset allocation in the strategy.
So i made the decision i will increase my asset allocation to systematic trading system 25% to 40%.
So earlier i trade the trade longterm system 25% asset allocation, from today i will decrase that to 20percent but in other hand i will allocate another 20 percent to the 20percentgrowth system (its same systematic momentum investing, but with etfs).
I have some positions in coffee (long), ANZ,CBA,WBC shorts, but i had to take some profits and decrase my position size because had a very big bounce in the bank shares.
Also i had significant positions gold mining shares.
Be honest i am start to get very tired this low interest rate experiment and i am bit worried its going to make a very serious damage to not just to the economy but also the social struture in our lifetime.

[LachlanPhillips]

November have been very difficult, but profitable month. I hope tonigh the SP500 and Nasdaq not going to be very strong, and close below the 200MA.
Discretionary trading i am really strugled my CBA shorts; i just do not understand why people buying the bank shares what paying couple % dividend but another hand the share price down close to 20%?The tighter lending standards and increasing cost of wholesale funding going to reduce the profit, and less profit equal less dividend and lower share price; or i am missing something?I had couple profitable short in the US indexis; i bought half of my shorts back and planning to open back in higher price.
Also i was like enough to catch the BTC breakdown, so i short it; i try to short BCH to but my CFD provider didnt let me to do that.
After the 14.November hard fork i sold my BCH on kraken and my plan was to sell my BSV (BCHSV); but when i opened the order book i just realised is not many for sale.So i did little bit of investigation, and i figure out, most of the people who has BSV after the hard fork, they unable to use or transfer to anywhere (so BSV didnt had much supply).I wathced carefully and i saw many times, when BSV offer was less than 5-20000$ and the buying side they had 80-250000$ worth of buying power.So i start to buying the BSV (39-40$).BSV price the next couple days went to 100-120$; today around 95-100$.So i had a good entry now i just have to sit thight on my hand.
Soon i will have 9days holiday and i am planning to go and repeat the mentor course lessons.

[LachlanPhillips]

Well i thought here in Australia they cannot change the law back, so if i had account more than 5 years or some case 10 years, and i am paying tax on my investment almost every year; how the goverment can make a change and tell me You cannot do it anymore, or just tell my CFD provider or my broker they cannot provide me the service what i am using multiple years.
I understand they want to protect people, but this rule should apply only for new accounts (lets say what they opening after 01/01/2019). I am not quite sure they can do it legaly or they can do whatever they want?!
This is lose-lose situation for everyone (client, brokerage firm or CFD provider and also the goverment(tax)).

[LachlanPhillips]

I am getting message from IG; where i had couple short positions to be become a wholesale client.”Change to your ASIC protections as a wholesale client”
Such protections include (but not limited to) the issuing of product disclosure statement…and the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) may be not be afforded to me anymore
Whats that mean, and why i have to be a wholesale client???
If anyone have some information about that a really appreciate if share with me.
Thnx

[LachlanPhillips]

Well it was a very volatile month.Be honest i am very happy the trade longterm portfolio switch to protect mode.I still like the strategy but the market condition was very hard.We have been the 8 or 9th worst week in the Nasdaq history the last 40 years; and we almost made the 10th place (worst month in Nasdaq history), but the last 2 days its change that.
Now i am very happy i just start to trade the strategy only 20% of my super (earlier when we having rocking gains i felt i am missing out), also i am greatful for more than 20% DD come after couple month, so i was lucky enough only losing almost 10% of my inital investemnt, because the first 4 months we made significant gains.(also i am trying to look % way the performance and not $ term.It si make easier for me.)
Well the strategy do what suppose to be doing (but the last week i hope; please do not bounce back to the 200MA; otherwise we not going to be protect mode) and i believe that situation can really push my limits if we have another months like that even i know the the chance for that very low.
My original plan was (May/2018); i going to increase after the first significant (more than 20% DD) my stake and i will rebalance my super and put another 20% to this strategy; but now i think only put extra 10%.I preferer to do some money before my allocation reach 40% on this strategy.
Otherwise my CBA and Westpac shorts start to making reasonable profit; so i increase my stake with ANZ short as well, not the worst time only 2 days before; so my discretionary trading performance went to amazing to reasonable profit to.

Also i checked out the bear momo list, but i didnt have enough time to really act on it, but this weekend i will spend some time to investigate and learn how can i use to my benefits.

Also i heard from a europien fund manager they are looking the 9days MA (momentum) strategy to go long or short; is not a significant change (if i remeber well Gary Antonocci using 2 weeks to rebalance).I am not quite sure it is important information but maybe people who did earlier the mentor course can use that information.

[LachlanPhillips]

Well i dind`t progress much in September.Usually September-May i do not have much time because of my work.I did couple test my weekend trader code and i change the different parameters and settings.Unfortunately in the risk side i am not conviced to trade my strategy even the return is extremly high.So i put on the shelves my code and later (with clear head i try to look different way).
I made the decision i will spend my limited time off the dual momenting and ranking system.
I am already trading Nick (tradelongterm) TLT strategy from Jun and i am very happy and satisfied the results.Also is not take much time to follow.I will reread the Stock on the move book and also i will visit again the mentor course the absolute and relative momentum section.
Discretionary Trading i spend little bit of time about the CBA and WBC and about the australian housing market.The last Noosapalousa i mention about shorting the banks bonds, but for induvidual investors the australian bond market its little bit undeveloped and bit gray area like the superannuation.The royal commisson, enquire, the slowing and falling house prise and the incrase of interest rates in US; i believe its a perfect storm from the big banks.Globaly the banks is not the favorite sector, spanish, italian banks in big trouble also the germans.So i start to build a bit of short positions in WBC and CBA; they have over 60% of the loan in housing; they have to tightening the lending standards; because of the royal commision and APRA.Also the loan and deposit ratio is very bad, so they have to fund them self from overseas and the overseas funding rate going up.So less income and higher cost going to make less profit.If the profit fall the next 6-18months the share price have to fall as well. Looks to me slowly more and more market participant start to be less bullish on the banks.

[LachlanPhillips]

Hi Drew,

Long service leave and annual leave definitely help, if You want to make most of this course otherwise is to much if You have a busy life.
I am not quite sure yet, but the course looks to me is just preparation to the deep dive in the rabbit hole, and after that is a never ending story.
Welcome and good luck!

[LachlanPhillips]

Thanks Julian, i believe i picked up couple bad habits over the years of trading.Nick Long Term (i call it)=TLT strategy is not require much work; maybe 5-10minutes a month and the results it is very promising.Maybe much easier or simplier if someone not really watching, monitoring the market.I am not quite sure why i got this feeling, because AMZN and ILMN had big swing as well.Its intresting if i give back 30,40,50 or 80% of my floating profit i do not feel the same, but if a winning trade turn to losing i just get that feeling to get rid of as soon as possible.
If i look at matematicly or logical way: to lose couple thousands floating profit is not better than losing couple hundreds from capital; but i believe lot of people have simular feeling about that.(so losing smaller capital make more impact than losing oppurtunity or floating profit even if is bigger amount).
I will work on it, and hopfully with more practice and experience with systematic trading i can eleminate those feelings.

[LachlanPhillips]

Hi Julian,

Thanks a lot Your time and answer.Also i would like to thank You for the Selection Bias code what You share on the forum.
I am not looking for secrets, just i have been reading Your journals.
I am played around little bit with the parameters as well; i changed the price to 1-100$ (from 1-10$) as well, i checked Russell3000, S&P400;S&P600 and S&P1500…
My average exposure around 23-26%; but the risk adjusted return is very high around ~35-44%.(maybe i am doing something wrong, i am not quite sure).

( My prefrererd time frame of trading around 30-90Days, except if i get some home run); so I changed the entry criteria little bit longer timeframe; like 100days-250days (or 20week-year) and also the index filter to 10weeks to 20 weeks even i tried 26 week.
Hopefully i am not entering the data mining area, but looks to me thanks to Your Selection Bias Code,and Craig help; most of time the risk adjusted return over 30% or higher.Average: 36%.
Also i find the winning trade % very high for trend following system; i got around 46-52%.
DD 25-29% what is not low; but my last 5 years result (not systematic trading) CAGR:15%; DD around 30%.

Thanks

Have a great week!
Tamas

[LachlanPhillips]

Hi Julian,

I have been reading your journal, because i am starting to code and designing my WTT trading system.
I wondering would you be as kind share some thoughts, idea or hints what you happy to share with me what you find when you designed Your WTT system.
I really appreciate your time, have a great week!

Tamas

my email: [email protected]

[LachlanPhillips]

Hi there,

I do not recommend to trade BTC, like most of the asset classes. BTC and other cryptos is not regulated market; so lot of intresting staff going on.Another thing most of the crypto markets have different price for the same product (for example BTC) in IG markets or Axitrader in Australia have different price than for example Japan, Korea etc….
Very often the price difference 20-30%, so it was possible to do arbitrage….Also cryptos trading 24/365.25; trading around continusly…
If You take reasonable money from the smaller brokers and CFD providers (lets say 30K); they will make more diffucult for You to trade them.So in your platfrom the spread getting wider and they do not execute You order, very often. If You give them a call, they giving You a price with very wide spread….
And if is not enough, to lose your interest:

Little help from the CFD provider:
“Changes to our overnight funding rates on cryptocurrencies
Dear Mr. Somogyi

We have reviewed the overnight funding charges that we apply to client positions on our cryptocurrency markets – Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Bitcoin Gold and Ether.

We will therefore be updating our overnight funding rate to 0.068% for all cryptocurrency markets (25% per annum). Clients with short positions will now receive the overnight funding rate, rather than pay it. In addition, a 7.5% per-annum IG admin fee will also apply.
What does this mean for my cryptocurrency positions?
• If you are long, you will pay an overnight funding charge of 0.089% a day (32.5% per annum).
• If you are short, you will receive an overnight funding charge of 0.048% a day (17.5% per annum).
This change will be effective from 29 December.

We will review our overnight funding charges regularly, and keep our website and contract details updated with the latest rates.

As a reminder, due to the various risks and complexity involved in trading underlying cryptocurrencies, there’s a limit to the total amount of physical cryptocurrency we can hold as a business. We therefore need to reflect this by limiting the exposure that each client is allowed to maintain through CFDs. This limit is currently £250,000 notional (approx. A$430,000 as of 22/12/17) per client, across all cryptocurrency holdings. Any client with a notional size above this limit is at risk of having their cryptocurrency positions reduced.

The launch of the Bitcoin futures market may mean that we can increase these limits. We should be in a position to offer more liquidity on cryptocurrencies to our clients in January, but we still expect to have restrictions in place for much of the time.
We’re here to help
If you have any questions about this or need help with your account, our highly trained customer service team is here to assist you. Please email us at [email protected]. Alternatively, call us on 1800 601 734 and we’ll be happy to help.

Kind regards

IG

T 1800 601 734
E [email protected]

IG.com.au”

I sold 90% of my cryptos last year september between this year January.

I believe the next 3-15 months the crypto market going to hit the bottom and around middle of 2020 and end of that year start a next bull market.

https://www.kraken.com/ (is a reasonable online crypto broker; with a JP Morgan accounts) and 1 of the owner is a significant person in the crypto space, but i never store more than 20-30k worth of crypto with them….(broker risk, even they are 1 of the biggest in this space); but if You trade high volume the transaction cost very competitive….
You can store your crypto in the paper wallet, 1 of the safest solution or a trezor device:

https://wallet.trezor.io/

I highly recommend for You to spend some time and learn about that space before invest money in this sector.(extrem speculative, but the last 2 years with break out and new high strategy it was possible to make significant return with 5-10% of investment; other hand You cannot lose stops with most of the brokers, so the position sizing is extremly important!!!

Maybe we can talk about 12-15months time about that.

Hopefully You find some helpful information.
Tamas

[LachlanPhillips]

https://www.16personalities.com/profiles/3db1e6d71add3

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