[KateMoloney]

I started using idrive about 2 weeks ago, but it only backs up Onedrive files one a day.

I’ve put in support requests with Scott a number of times on the crashing issue, even sent him corrupt files.
All he could offer was saving to desktop and turning auto save off.
STT crashes still happen (maybe every 7-10 trading days?) but its better than the 2-3x a week occurrence.

For example, yesterday I loaded up STT with 63 trades from MOC strategy. The upload took about 20 minutes. Spreadsheet operated fine. Was able to pull up individual strategy results, account balances etc no problems. Then this morning I open the spreadsheet and it opens then closes/crashes about 2 seconds later.

[KateMoloney]

By API instances do you mean number of API programs?
I have one API managing 2x MOC strategies. Should I have one API per strategy?

Sam got me to check something and there were no RAM overloads or errors reported in the last 24 hours.

[KateMoloney]

Just to add to this thread;

I’ve had some issues with STT recently (files corrupting and failing). I was told to save the STT files to desktop and turn auto save OFF. It has helped somewhat. I copy the files to one drive once daily.

For the MOC strategy I use a new STT spreadsheet every month. Sometimes the STT corrupts itself mid month, so I grab a backup STT copy. For that reason, I keep the API data spreadsheets as backups.

[KateMoloney]

Just to add to this thread;

I’ve had some issues with STT recently (files corrupting and failing). I was told to save the STT files to desktop and turn auto save OFF. It has helped somewhat. I copy the files to one drive once daily.

For the MOC strategy I use a new STT spreadsheet every month. Sometimes the STT corrupts itself mid month, so I grab a backup STT copy. For that reason, I keep the API data spreadsheets as backups.

[KateMoloney]

Trading certainly never stops teaching.

I went down a rabbit hole with my research the last 2 weeks. Turns out an idea that looked good on paper couldn’t be applied in the real world. Grateful to be able to extend the mentoring and thanks to Nick for talking whilst recovering from covid. Every time I talk to Nick or Craig I come away with at least a page full of notes and valuable insights.

Wisdom can be gained from experience or a mentor – or both!

[KateMoloney]

Nice work Paul. Good luck with it.

[KateMoloney]

March update

ASX Momentum – CASH
Growth Defensive -0.11% (missed two signals due to being overseas)

US Momentum +0.75% (missed dividends added to records)
TLT +1.5% (missed dividends)

The Buffett +7.84%
White Pocket -5.24%

Been a productive month overall. Really enjoying the process of trading.

Have launched phase I of the White Pocket remodel, which saved brokerage costs. So far, so good.
Currently working on Phase II of the remodel and will launch the beta mode next week on a reduced account size.

Once this is done, I’ll do the same for The Buffett, with the goal to launch both phases by early May.

I have also been reading “The Psychology of Money” book that Nick recommended. It is a great read. One of the chapters talks about single points of failure in business, which really got me thinking about our trading business.

Last year our mobile and internet provider, Optus, upgraded a tower in our area, which led to verryyyyyyyy slooooowwww / non existent internet for 6 weeks. And we live near the Brisbane CBD! Since that bad experience, we got Telstra mobile internet for our home, and as a backup, I kept my Optus phone plan with 125GB of mobile data. Since the floods last month, the Telstra internet has been playing up and I am hotspotting off my mobile. Bloody Murphy’s Law!

After reading the book, and reflecting on how disruptive losing the internet was, I looked at other single points of failure in the business.

I upgraded my laptop and kept my old one as a spare – in case a laptop dies. Having two laptops has been very handy during the MCS and optimizing stages, has saved so much time, and its been handy having a laptop to refer to for the correct AB settings.

I have also set up AB and Norgate on my VPS for emergency situations.

Then I looked at data backups. I use onedrive, but heard of a business friends experience … they were hacked and lost all their documents on onedrive. It took Microsoft a month to restore their documents. Quite scary.
So now I have a secondary backup with idrive, who back up documents and also do disk imagining. The cost is minimal and I consider it cheap insurance. I also have a hard drive that I back up once a month and store in a safe.

I have also started rewriting my brokerage access documents in more detail, including setting up two trusted people with logins with the broker. The process with IB has so far been very easy.

What other single points of failure have you identified in your business and what steps have you taken to over come them?

[KateMoloney]

The few weeks have been very productive and personally very rewarding.

Have revamped system #2. Same rules, just overhauled the system from a $5 price minimum to $20 price minimum. It seems like a minor thing, but it’ll add up to a lot in the long run in terms of increased profit margin.

Average brokerage across last 200 trades with IB (tiered pricing)

Trades $20+ $2.62 brokerage (buy and sell, including exchange costs)
Trades $10 – $20 $7.01
Trades $5 – $10 $8.71

Redid the optimization tests and made sure I only adjusted ONE parameter this time. When I was a newbie I had optimized a couple of parameters. Made money on the system, but didn’t think it was going to be sustainable long term. The metrics of the new version with a $20 price minimum are similar to the old system.

Now that this is done, I am trialling a few ideas with system #2 and some of these ideas have slightly improved the metrics. For example, one idea reduced the max % loss (in a day) by 7%, with fewer outlier losing days than the previous system. This will make the system easier to trade over the long term.

Once the new model is complete and thoroughly tested, it will be traded, and then I will do the same for system #1 – change the minimum price to $20 and trial a few ideas. It is a big job because I am essentially testing everything from scratch again to make sure I haven’t over optimized, curve fit etc. Having the Trading Course to refer to along the way has been very valuable. Applied learning rather than learning theories.

In Jan/Feb I invested a lot of time into creating a system that I didn’t like (42% max DD). Initially it seemed like a waste of time, but now that I’m revamping my current systems, I’ve noticed my skill set has improved. Perhaps next 1,000 trades should become next 1,000 systems ?!

Finally, the other day the penny really dropped around the perception of missing out on the high profit night (in Feb). Had it happened I would have left the systems as they were. But because I missed out on a tidy profit, I got annoyed and focused on what I could control … which was improving what I’ve already got. These changes will improve profit margins in the years to come.

If I had the choice between a healthy profit early on in the game, or a sustainable system that I can comfortably trade long term, I would choose the later. Compounding wins, even it takes longer to come into fruition.

[KateMoloney]

Nick, after what I’ve learned from yourself and Craig, I am highly critical of these people that tout “97% win rate systems”.

[KateMoloney]

50% margin
5% position size

Bear in mind, I also changed one of the conditions slightly and added a new ranking system.

[KateMoloney]

17 days of trading on IB tiered

For both buy and sell brokerage (average)

Trades $20+, $2.62
Trades $10 – $20, $7.01
Trades $5 – $10, $8.71

My understanding is it gets cheaper the more volume you trade?

[KateMoloney]

Tiered commissions with IB definitely helped get our brokerage costs down in the last month. Haven’t got enough of a data sample yet to determine average costs for shares below $20, but the reduction in cost has so far been significant.

At a $10 or $15 price minimum, the CAGR on R2000 is 19% with 8% max DD (5% position sizing).

At a $10 price minimum, the shares under $20 traded was 39% and at a $15 price minimum, the shares under $20 was 26%.

At $20 price minimum, CAGR on R2000 is 16% with 9% /10% maxDD (5% position sizing).

Given the difference in performance between a $15 price minimum and a $20 price minimum, I feel like I’m missing something.

Can’t remember the word, but whether its curve fit or bias data sample.

Got more research to do.

[KateMoloney]

70+ Free Trading Strategies (Quantified Systems)

200 Trading Strategies (Free) 2024 — Backtests, Data-Driven, Rules, Settings

[KateMoloney]

Some more ideas.
Not saying it is a good system/strategy. Just some ideas to try.

The R3 Mean-Reversion Strategy Explained

[KateMoloney]

Mean reversion ideas

https://decodingmarkets.com/mean-reversion-trading-strategy/

Pasted from another article.

There are many indicators which can be handy for developing Mean Reversion Trading systems. Examples are Bollinger Bands, Donchian channels, RSI, CCI etc.

[Author]

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