[KateMoloney]

Having had the last 2 weeks off … its been so nice and gives you a different perspective on the markets.

Enjoy your holiday.

[KateMoloney]

Sharing some lessons.

Still on the mend post op, so had a lot of time to reflect on things. The wound dressing inside my ear throws my balance off and I get confused with words / conversations….. so I will not be trading until next week when the dressing is out. After that, I will blame my blondeness for the dumb things I sometimes do ! 

Day trade update

In terms of the day trade strategy, when I started it in Nov 2021 & Jan 2022, I anticipated not making any money for the first 8 – 12 months. Based on a back test I did during the GFC, the strategy made roughly a 5% total return on capital in the first 8-10 months of trading. My rule was if my initial capital went into a drawdown of 35% then I would stop trading and evaluate the strategy.

Given the recent market of late (!) I am grateful for my past thinking around protecting initial capital VS dreams of making a tonne of money as a trader in the first year.
Whilst Lambos and “too the moon” would have inflated my ego, I don’t like Lambos and crypto moon BS talk is for the get-rich-quickers.

First day trade strategy is currently in a drawdown of 29%.
Here’s the beautiful part. The strategy made unanticipated profit in the early months, which gave me a profit buffer to handle the current market. My return on my initial capital is 0.13%. So the market basically let me play for free over the last 7-8 months, learn about myself, learn about trading. All I “lost” was my time.

Second day trade strategy is in a drawdown of 35% and the drawdown on initial capital is 19.16%. All survivable, all within my emotional comfort range and expectations for a bear market (based on backtests/stress tests).

Some mistakes

I made a mistake a few weeks/months back where I made an error with one of the settings and was trading on that error. I do daily backtests and reconcile all the trades daily, so when the error showed up in real time trading, I picked it up right away. I felt pretty embarrassed about it (still do), but I am in the process of working on it/working through it. My mistake with the settings oddly rattled me more than the $ loss & drawdown.

The situation also revealed to me that I can handle $ losses fine, but when its piled on with other major life events eg surgery, death, flooding, then my ability to cope with trading losses diminishes. For example, last week I was in the hospital trying to diagnose, unpack and learn from my trading errors 30 minutes before I was due for surgery. Of all the dumb sh*t I could do, that was the dumbest thing I could be doing in that moment. Now my rule is take time off … before.. during and after….

OPM (Other peoples money) …

My Dad has a lot of mates who are cashed up ex dairy farmers. Earlier this year, he told them what I was doing and I fielded countless offers to trade their money. I turned all those offers down because I wanted to master my own money + emotions before taking on someone else’s money + emotions. In hindsight, I am glad I didn’t add that additional pressure so early in my trading career. I think as a new trader the focus needs to be on longevity rather than profitability. Any move that challenges your ability to be sustainable should either be sidelined or pushed further down the road until you have the experience to handle it.

It is easy to run through a back test or stress test, but you never know how you will actually handle something until you have real skin in the game.
Feb 25 & this last week have been defining moments for me as a trader, in terms of understanding where my limits & weaknesses are.

Trading truly is a psychological game above all else. I grew up on a dairy farm, where I was taught that you work ‘rain, hail or shine’, including and during difficult life events. The cows needed to be milked twice a day, seven days a week, you just couldn’t take time off. What I realise is that belief system in trading does not serve me and I didn’t realise that I had that belief until I was in the hospital focusing on trading instead of a major surgery.

I’m sure there will be many more lessons to come from trading  – lessons that won’t reveal themselves unless I keep showing up and putting skin in the game.

Finally ….
Just wanted to express my gratitude for this community, including Nick and Craig. Being able to be transparent and share a space with people I trust has made the journey so much more rewarding. THANK YOU.

[KateMoloney]

Mark Cottle post=13118 userid=5419 wrote:

Should be all done now.

Spinal fusion done in November, that subsequently got infected right down to my spine. Caught it in time before it got inside my spine, but was fairly serious.

That required two more surgeries to firstly remove the infection, insert antibiotic beads, then another surgery to remove the beads and check the infection is gone.

It absolutely takes the wind out of your sails. I spent a month taking enough antiobiotics to kill a horse I reckon.

Trading or doing anything demanding just has to take a back seat in times like that. Hopefully you feel better soon and the market stops closing on it’s bloody lows every day!

That sounds fairly nasty Mark. My friend broke his ankle and had an infection in the bone, it took a while for him to get over it.

Hopefully you are on the mend now. Do you know when you will get back into trading?

[KateMoloney]

Julian Cohen post=13112 userid=5314 wrote:

Don’t have FOMO because the massive up day that often happens after a big down day hasn’t happened…..yet

No FOMO here Julian! Tell me when the red clown show is over 

[KateMoloney]

Mark Cottle post=13113 userid=5419 wrote:

I can relate to this Kate.

I just had my 3rd back surgery in 6 months a few weeks ago. My back now looks like a zipper on a jacket.

Trading hasn’t been at the top of my things to focus on. I’ve got my L Plates on with the coding…and each time I open the editor I just close it again within a couple of minutes. Hospital definitely put the brakes on my plans this year!

The upside (gotta find an upside while having the shit kicked out of you, right?!) of being butchered repeatedly is I’ve mostly been in cash for months and sidestepped the daily carnage.

Get well soon!

How did your surgery go Mark? Have you recovered ok from it? Is that your last one?

With the benefit of hindsight, I can see I was pretty stressed about the surgery before hand and should have given myself some time off in advance.
Cumulative surgeries can really take their toll, hey.
 

[KateMoloney]

Rob M post=13104 userid=5369 wrote:

I hope the best for your surgery Kate, the markets will be here when you are ready. I recently took a week off to help my mom recover from knee replacement, it gave me a lot of peace to focus on her needs and place my account on hold for the week.

Thanks guys.

That is great advice Rob re: taking time off and finding peace with it. The market isn’t going to go anywhere 
Operation went a lot longer than expected and it has really knocked me around this time. It has been really nice to take time off from trading. 

[KateMoloney]

Nick Radge post=13095 userid=549 wrote:

Quote:

What sort of exercises do you do?

Usually start drinking after breakfast

Cheaper than trading losses of late? 

[KateMoloney]

Day Trade system is now pushing its limits.

Todays plan is to exercise and then come back and look at the system.

I can either;

1) stop trading for a bit
2) trade at a reduced account size
3) look under the hood of the systems to help me gain some certainty

Leaning towards option 3. But we will see. Got surgery tomorrow and it could be a major one depending on surgeons plan. My health takes priority.

[KateMoloney]

What sort of exercises do you do?

[KateMoloney]

Welcome Steven, hope you enjoy the course.

If your ever around West End, Brisbane, let me know.

[KateMoloney]

Julian Cohen post=13086 userid=5314 wrote:

Here’s my May and June…last few days are steady losses but always (so far) small in percentage terms…death by a thousand cuts in stand of executioner’s axe

Sorry I wanted to post an image but I can’t seem to do it for some reason

 

Been re-listening to Morgan Housel, the author of psychology of money. It has been great for my psychology in this current environment.

If I had pulled profits in a year or two prior to this market, I don’t think I would be as bothered by the current market. But because I’ve suffered an over all loss after 20+ months of trading, I’ve had to believe in a process that I haven’t had a positive result from, if that makes sense?

I’m having to reframe what success is, instead of success being a profit, success in this market is managing risk and protecting the portfolio from extensive drawdowns.

PS – can’t wait to see your picture. Is your trading account similar to this clip?

[video]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z0HUfXey1SY[/video]

 

[KateMoloney]

Julian Cohen post=13082 userid=5314 wrote:

For me it was pretty much all week. 5 down days in a row. I haven’t had that for a year or so

That is interesting Julian …

In an 18 day period I only had 3 losing days, except the losses were a much higher % than the profits.

The last 2 trading days -4.05% and -2.03% put the account back to where it was on the 15th of May. This financial year will likely post an over all loss on all trading strategies … unless there is some miracle by June 30. Last financial year was a loss as well. 

There is time in the market and then there is timing (when you start).

Can see why a lot of new traders get discouraged and give up.

[KateMoloney]

Julian Cohen post=13027 userid=5314 wrote:

I suggest Nick as he is our revered leader…the Gods will appreciate our sacrifice more if we throw him in
 

The trading gods are clearly angry we did not sacrifice our revered leader ……

The last two trading sessions were a warning ….

[KateMoloney]

It is certainly a tough market.
Made some nice gains on my MOC last 10 days … only to be wiped out and then some last night.

One step forward, two steps back at the moment.

[KateMoloney]

Plan is to wait till end of year (at least), let things recover a bit and find a new place for the money.

Don’t want all our wealth in systematic trading.
Want to buy some industrial real estate in the medium term, or, if hubby gets his way, another classic car.

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