[GlenPeake]

Just a quick note/observation….

I’m seeing a BIG improvement to my MR trades this month…. a lot more quality in terms of the ‘reversion’ to the upside…. on a variety of R1000 tickers…… but also in the wider universe (US small/mid caps)…

Multi-day MR trades in tickers like $AFRM, $COIN, leading the R1000 big caps, while outside of the R1000 MR trades involving $GCT, $CLSK, $SSNT have yielded gains in the 20% – 50% range.

Hope others are catching some of this move, as the market seems to be more ‘in sync’ on the MR side…..for the time being anyway… (probably spoke to soon).

I just checked a few MOC systems (paper trading)… and all are positive for the month of December.

[GlenPeake]

The latest Chat With Traders with Tom Basso… Episode #271

He speaks a little bit about the All Weather strategy and hedging.

271 · The Sweet Balance Between Risk and Reward w/ Tom Basso

[GlenPeake]

NOVEMBER 2023

ASX
WTT +9.54%
ASX100 RTN 0%
XSO RTN 0%
LSS +3.56%

US
MR#1 +0.18%
MR#2 -0.37%
MR#3 +1.18%
MR#4 +2.72%
MR#5 +1.66%

NDX100 RTN 0%
R1000 RTN 0%

Monthly Total Account: +3.39%

Current, Total Account 2023 year to date return: +24.02%

Drawdown Start Date: NOV 2021
Max Drawdown: -32%
Max Drawdown date: MAY 2023
Current Drawdown: -12.80%

 

[GlenPeake]

Noooiiicccceee!!!!!

If only all MOC trades played out like this…. lol

Well done!

You’re well overdue a decent day (or many days)…

[GlenPeake]

OCTOBER 2023

ASX
WTT +16.11%
ASX100 RTN 0%
XSO RTN 0%
LSS -6.35%

US
MR#1 -1.17%
MR#2 -6.22%
MR#3 -5.89%
MR#4 -2.02%
MR#5 -5.01%

NDX100 RTN -1.84%
R1000 RTN -12.60%

Monthly Total Account: +3.98%

Current, Total Account 2023 year to date return: +19.96%

Drawdown Start Date: NOV 2021
Max Drawdown: -32%
Max Drawdown date: MAY 2023
Current Drawdown: -15.67%

In a nutshell, the performance of the Total Account for 2023 has all been on the back of AZS.au…. Which highlights that you only need one position to run like an AZS.au in the suite of systems, to turn a negative year into a solid year.

There have been so few stocks to run over the past 2 years…. and the few that have run, they’ve been tough to capture, kind of like a ‘needle in a haystack’ / ‘hen’s teeth’ etc.

[GlenPeake]

Hi Kate,

Try analysing the % of stocks within a universe (e.g. SPX) that their 40day MA is above the close.

E.g.

InSPXUNI: InSPX
stocks: #sum InSPXUNI

t2108: #sum c > ma(c,40) and InSPX
SCANT2108: {“T2108: % Above 40Day MA”%2} t2108 /stocks

You could also try 20, 50, 100 or 200 day MA (or EMA)… etc..

My Dashboard has a few others, but they all highlight much the same etc…

For SPX examples, check Sheets # 9 and # 11 and scroll up and down for the various dates and watch things turn from GREEN to RED etc…

https://tinyurl.com/ASXBreadthSectorDashboard

[GlenPeake]

With back to back months like that Nick, hopefully that’s a sign of this crappy market bottoming out and turning around…… fingers crossed anyway.

[GlenPeake]

SEPTEMBER 2023

ASX
WTT +3.01%
ASX100 RTN -6.13%
XSO RTN 0%
LSS +1.94%

US
MR#1 -1.89%
MR#2 -4.80%
MR#3 -2.55%
MR#4 +0.61%
MR#5 -18.90%

NDX100 RTN -6.70%
R1000 RTN -10.40%

Monthly Total Account: -0.90%

Considering how the markets have performed during SEPT, I’m OK with the total account performance…..I was expecting worse etc.

Current Total Account Drawdown situation:

Drawdown Start Date: NOV 2021
Max Drawdown: -32%
Max Drawdown date: MAY 2023
Current Drawdown: -18.90%

 

[GlenPeake]

Thanks Trent…. No I wasn’t aware of that….. will check it out.

Thanks mate!

[GlenPeake]

Sorry to hear the sad news Kate.

Like Nick/Julian have already said…..give yourself time to recover, markets will always be there and hopefully in a better state when you are ready to return.

[GlenPeake]

Thanks Nick, will take a listen to it….!

A nice follow up post to your Tweet today regarding Platform/Due Diligence and “We are more inclined to inherently trust human decisions rather than a systematic decision”

Perhaps 3rd party your involved with need to take a look at Renaissance.

[GlenPeake]

Thanks Said.

The Dashboard helps weed out the ‘junk’ stocks and focus on momentum stocks…. and the colour scale resonates with me and makes it easy to monitor for clear changes in trend….

Additionally, as I’ve decided to make it public, obligates me to update every day and forces me to look at the values/colours which assists with spotting changes. I’ve also had some feedback/ideas that helps improve/evolve it etc.

[GlenPeake]

Do you watch the market during the day, or do you set your entries and exits and leave it to run?

– I don’t have to watch the market, but like to keep an eye on things, especially during the early phases of running this system, my entry methodology is slightly different to what Qullamaggie describes…. his is more of an ORB (Opening Range Breakout) on any time frame (e.g. 5min/15min/1hour candle) price action on an intra-day level, to enter the position, using the Low of Day as the Stop….atm… I’m using a slightly different stop methodology, predetermined the night before. This means I don’t have to watch the screens during the day if I don’t want to….

Why didn’t you build the spreadsheet part using RT?
– That’s exactly what I did…. I run the scans in RT and then copy/paste the RT Scan output directly into the online Google Sheet….. I built and shared the sheets so that it would ensure I kept it updated on a daily basis, which means I have to look at all the colour scales, which means it’s more likely I’ll spot a shift in breadth/market behaviour etc and I can adjust accordingly etc (Pattern Recognition repetition)

Do you use RT for any part of the entry process, or is it primarily discretionary. I assume you are using Order Clerk to place the trades, or are you just using tradelists to monitor the trades. 

– I do all my analysis work after the market closes. Generate/Edit an Order CSV file manually for my BUY orders, with SELL STP LMT attached for NEW setups and then Load into Basket Trader. I review existing open positions and make adjustments to STOPs…. I always have SELL STOP orders for any open position active in IB …. Initially any new positions, I set logical Entry Price & STOP Price levels and try and keep risk/reward in check and refer to the current ADR(20) value when considering a position/STOP etc and ALWAYS review the Hourly chart…..

If a trade gets up and running and starts to become profitable I’ll then transition from the initial STOP, to the 10 day MA / 20 day MA as the trailing STOP…. e.g. a close below on the 10 day MA (this STOP is not an active order in IB). Depending on the trend trade/market conditions I may chose to use the 10/20day MA or the 10/21day EMA…..It just depends on my read on the stock and where it is in the trend, how much % profit I have it and how much wiggle room I want to give it and current market conditions) I know that sounds like a lot of variables but I can always review POST trade…….. It really depends on the personality of the stock and how it has respected the MAs/EMAs historically….i.e. the interactions of the stock and the MAs/EMAs in the past and how ‘easy’ the chart is to interpret, will help guide me when managing the position real time. The easier it is to read in the past (i.e. referring to price action/MAs) the easier it is to read when holding a position……. When I’m considering a position, if historically the chart is CHOPPY and the price action and MA’s are all over the shop….. then I’ll just ignore the setup completely. Simple works best.

I’ll also use a “Worst Case Scenario” stop….. i.e. the trade in WC8…. on WED the stock closed at .41 and the 10 day MA was .38….. if you check the chart there is a little consolidation between 36-40….. so I set a Worst Case Scenario stop ACTIVE in IB of .35 just below this price level, just in case price action sold off hard and fast (through the 10 day MA)….. which it did on THURS….. so I got stopped out intra day…… as it turns out WC8 closed at .35 that same day anyway…..

For the AZS position I’m currently using the 21 EMA as the STOP, it went close to closing below the 21ema on 30/8 but held up….. as the chart has been consolidating on the daily chart with volume declining which is BULLISH imo….and the stock has respected the MA/EMA;s in the past and is still trending up…….. I want to give the position a chance to be a big winner. My reads on this chart have been ‘in-sync’ in the past and I have confidence with my interpretation of the chart.

For me, automatic orders are a 100% must….. price action can move too fast through STOPs and you can miss your fill if you ‘mouse click’ your SELL order etc….. this also means I don’t need to be in front of the screens watching….. etc… I subscribe to ASX realtime data from IB…. so when breakouts happen my BUY orders will trigger accordingly etc…

I don’t use OrderClerk….. (I’m yet to use it all…. )….. So Basket Trader for order management is sufficient etc.

I created a separate page in TWS for the Positions Held in this system….. that way I know what I’m holding etc…rather then having to search through the TWS portfolio positions from ALL systems etc…. just helps separate different positions in different systems etc…

But yes, I just record all the trades in a separate CSV file (there aren’t many on a daily basis) and then import into RT using TradeList etc….. atm there are only a couple of trades a day, if that…. so doing this manually is not a big deal etc…

re: Review Hourly Charts to ‘refine’ Entry/Stop Levels:
Trading View is awesome for charting on any time frame, you can download/use it for FREE, but have to put up with ADs popping up or pay a minimal subscription fee…. e.g. $15 per month and go AD free….. I bought the highest/Premium subscription when it was on sale……for an annual fee of around us$200….. TradingView has a backtesting engine….inferior to what we are use to using….. but wanted to try it out in the future which is why I went with the Premium subscription when it was on sale to open up the complete backtesting options etc (I haven’t touched the backtester yet….so can’t comment on it)

 

[GlenPeake]

Thanks Ben….

One of the major factors to the success of Qullamaggie is Stock Selection…. and as selecting the right stocks/charts is more ‘art’ than science…. it is difficult to quantify in CODE etc….it’s hit/miss…. I’ve tried and you do capture some of the setups, but ‘crap’ ones always slip through….and inevitability you miss some of the better setups….. so unfortunately I couldn’t have a fully automated system in code.

Therefore, capturing the momo stocks and eyeballing charts ends up being the way forward….. The fact that there have been so few stocks that have trended well of late, yet I’ve somehow manage to capture ‘some’ of the moves in the one’s that have (e.g. AZS, WC8), gives me confidence that my process has some edge to it…. the rest is risk/trade management, common sense etc…. and being VERY selective when eyeballing and filtering stocks…..  only accept the best of the best….. if you have to force your analysis onto a chart, then the pattern isn’t good enough….. especially in this market….. Using  my dashboard  “8. XAO Index Dashboard” as in Index filter when things go RED, like they are now is something we are use to in our momo systems….. and in backtesting other 100% systematic trend systems, we know index filters work, so common sense suggests adopting some of these tactics will work here as well, even though I can’t backtest it like we’re used to…..

If I’m able to produce some of the returns I’m currently getting in this crappy market atm, I’m optimistic that when the market does eventually become more favourable and starts trending higher, that I’ll be able to capture some of the bigger runners and more of them etc…. you only need 1 or 2 good runners to see the returns coming in.

If you need assistance or have questions and what to experiment further happy to exchange ideas, just reach here or Twitter or RealTest DM etc.

My plan is to nail down this system on the ASX, then eventually try and replicate it on the US. Might take a year or so before I get there but that’s the plan.
 

[GlenPeake]

LeTour Swing System Details

…..as a starter I’ve built my swing system using various resources including a lot of Nick’s knowledge base etc….

I’m trying to replicate Qullamaggie’s swing system/approach (who wouldn’t want to replicate some of his performances)….

The resources that I’ve used to learn about Qullamaggie’s system(s): https://qullamaggie.com/my-3-timeless-setups-that-have-made-me-tens-of-millions/

Qullamaggie was interviewed by Aaron on CWT back in FEB 2021

https://chatwithtraders.com/ep-212-kristjan-kullamagi/

The best YouTube video(s) that highlight/explain the approach:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=we5LLjFlHCc

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KOoHYrIY4Kk

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a3PZOpDlH9w

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nKtzOA1grfs

My Stock Selection criteria for my LeTour Swing System comes from the data provided on my Dashboard… in Sheets # 4, 5, 6

https://tinyurl.com/ASXBreadthSectorDashboard

Sheet #4 & #5 Hot Sector…. measures the Sector ROC and the Stock ROC….. Sector ROC must be positive and the Stock ROC must be greater than the Sector ROC it belongs in to qualify.

Sheet #6 Simply……. stock is trading within 10% of its 52 week highs. (Simple works best).

If a stock doesn’t make it into one the Sheets #4,5,6….. then it’s not considered….. ROC momentum is factored into the ranking….. and only the best performers are considered…… This weeds out a lot of the JUNK! I also factor in Sector Longer Term/Shorter Term performance for the data produced in Sheet #7……  Additionally, I use the data provided by Sheet #8 as an Index Filter/Risk management/Trade Management function…..  i.e. when MA’s start turning RED, tighten stops, then only take the very BEST buy setups….. if more RED starts lighting up…. then NO BUYING etc….. u know the drill etc….

It’s a breakout style daily system.

As a recent example for HOT SECTOR:
Using the 10 Day HOT Sector Dashboard got me into uranium recently….The data started signaling Uranium as an out performer over a week ago and got me into the BOE trade recently.

Using Qullamaggie’s approach, by far the biggest Home Run trade has been in AZS, with multiple positions resulting in +100% gains, with a best return of 279%. (System ADDs to winning positions). First trade in AZS was back in MAY @ .40cents…… LLOONNGG before it was hitting the headlines and +100m Liithium intercepts….. stock has been respecting/surfing the 10day/20day MA / EMAs…. and is a PERFECT example of what a Qullamaggie trade looks like…… “Surfing” the MA’s is also a Qullamaggie catchphrase etc….

It’s taken around 12months to research and get this system to this point…….

/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Here’s a summary that was posted by someone else on Twitter that summerises how Qullamaggie goes about it…..

1) Scan for the top 10% RS stocks on a 1, 3, and 6 month that are within 10-15% of recent highs.

2) Go through all of the charts and flag all the ones that are pulled back in the vicinity of their 10/20 EMA.  Use the daily or weekly or a combination of the two to identify
and flag stocks that are in a pullback or consolidation.

3) Make a mental note of the groups/sectors/themes that show up in the greatest numbers.

4) Whittle the flagged items down to those that an orderly, constructive consolidation where the volatility is contracting, the stock is building higher lows, and getting tight.
Could be two days, could be 6 or 7; 3-5 days is just a general rule of thumb to help you avoid chasing junk that hasn’t consolidated long enough. To be clear, I’m talking
about the most recent contraction is 3-5 days.  The overall pullback or pattern might be several weeks long. I’m not talking about looking for 3-5 day bases. There is a clear
difference. If there is a clear group theme, this is your priority area.

5) Identify the pivot or breakout point where the stock would have to breakout of to trigger you into the trade.  Typically, this will be highest points of the 3-5 day tight range.  

6) At a minimum, make sure that the group/sector you’re trading is in an uptrend – 10 over 20 and both trending up on the group chart. Preferably, you want the major indices
to be in an uptrend as well. $QQQ for tech and $SPY for consumer/stuff stocks.

7) Buy stocks breaking out on strong relative volume on a stock by stock basis. Don’t predict which ones will breakout. Many never will. Don’t go crazy and buy 10 stocks in a day, even if they are all breaking out. If there are 10 breaking out, go with the highest ADR, strongest group, strongest volume, best setup.  I know, subjectivef, but trust me,
don’t try to buy everything on one day. There will be more setups.

8 ) Sell 1/3 to 1/2 of your position after 3-5 days or once up 2R or even use a close below the 20EMA on the hourly.   Trail the rest with the 10 or 20 EMA, depending on your
preferences and ability to hold. The main exception is a climax run up that stretches the stock far above the MAs. In this case, use the 5 EMA, bar-by-bar lows, or switch to the
20EMA on the hourly.

[Author]

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