US Election

[Anonymous]

Nick Radge wrote:

I had no fills in the ASX yesterday which was a bit of a surprise.

Big night in US, 15 orders placed, 14 fills for +3.6%

just goes to show you shouldnt listen to the hype

[LeeDanello]

What a crazy bloody world. Darryl, don’t think do!

[TrentRothall]

It’s almost like the when the Aus market gets some unexpected news first without the US hinting what direction to go it just panics and says “wtf do we do – SELL” then the US comes in and pull in back into line.

[ScottMcNab]

I remember trying to see if I could take advantage of this back in my metastock days.It seemed that there were times when the ASX followed the US lead quite closely and other times it completely ignored it…couldn’t find a consistent way to use the US indices as a leading indicator but I might look at it again.

[TrentRothall]

I think Nick may have written an article about it before and if i recall correct, it was almost random..

[Anonymous]

Maurice Petterlin wrote:

What a crazy bloody world. Darryl, don’t think do!

easily said when your just paper trading maurice

[LeeDanello]

That’s why I’m paper trading. I’m trying to build some confidence in my system. I’ll get there soon.

[Anonymous]

it raises some interesting thoughts around when to use judgement (or not) and intervene with your system.
here were my naive thoughts behind pulling out of trading for the day:
[ul]
[li]had been taking note of pundits over the last few weeks/months talking about uncertainty regarding trump victory[/li]
[li]planned on normal trading for election day and placed orders in the asx for MOC system[/li]
[li]was watching abc election coverage on the day that showed asx taking a tumble as trumps chances got closer. at the time i had no orders filled and decided that there was a chance plently of stocks may finish lower for the day (not a great scenario for MOC system) so made a quick decision to cancel all orders[/li]
[li]saw nicks post regarding S&P down and started to join the dots that the US market may tank for the day[/li]
[li]again tried to use some judgement and suspended orders for US MOC system[/li]
[li]ultimately decided putting the system on hold for a day would not significantly reduce any potential profits long term given both systems use MOC and im back in the game the next day anyway[/li]
[/ul]

lessons learned:
[ul]
[li] pundits dont always get it right and cant be relied upon[/li]
[li] judgement is good when inputs are reliable[/li]
[/ul]

[ScottMcNab]

Hi Darryl,
I did same thing as I mentioned …placed orders on asx and was fairly oblivious to it all at work (no internet connection) and suddenly my phone started going berserk with messages from family and friends….iphone confirmed asx tanking. I had to use the iphone as hotspot to log on to cancel orders. Backtest tells me I would have made a 1% gain instead of a 0.5% loss. The MOC systems of mine seem to make most of their profits in only a few days each month and as it is a MRV it often makes them on days that look grim in the opening few hours. I had always told myself that I would always trade the system regardless but blinked in the oncoming headlights….must still be a few more classic errors I haven’t made yet. In the end, standing aside once every four years isn’t going to matter.

Another option I have been trialing to help make MOC easier to trade on the days with strong bearish sentiment in an intra-day stop loss. I have tested them at 5, 10 and 15 %. Interestingly that CAR/maxDD for the system stays almost exactly the same…only improvement is the maximum loss for a single trade drops to the stop loss value chosen. So while it has no value in respect to CAR it may be very valuable in allowing us to stick to the system. Only thing stopping me now is how much I have already spent on Batchtrader…think I have 3 or 4 versions already.

[Anonymous]

Scott McNab wrote:

Hi Darryl,
I did same thing as I mentioned …placed orders on asx and was fairly oblivious to it all at work (no internet connection) and suddenly my phone started going berserk with messages from family and friends….iphone confirmed asx tanking. I had to use the iphone as hotspot to log on to cancel orders. Backtest tells me I would have made a 1% gain instead of a 0.5% loss. The MOC systems of mine seem to make most of their profits in only a few days each month and as it is a MRV it often makes them on days that look grim in the opening few hours. I had always told myself that I would always trade the system regardless but blinked in the oncoming headlights….must still be a few more classic errors I haven’t made yet. In the end, standing aside once every four years isn’t going to matter.

Another option I have been trialing to help make MOC easier to trade on the days with strong bearish sentiment in an intra-day stop loss. I have tested them at 5, 10 and 15 %. Interestingly that CAR/maxDD for the system stays almost exactly the same…only improvement is the maximum loss for a single trade drops to the stop loss value chosen. So while it has no value in respect to CAR it may be very valuable in allowing us to stick to the system. Only thing stopping me now is how much I have already spent on Batchtrader…think I have 3 or 4 versions already.

hi scott i also had complete faith that i would just line up each day and pull the trigger. things get tricky though when you start to think you know what the market is going to do. :unsure:

i have also been lamenting my ties to batchtrader. hence ive been working on coding my own interface that i can eventually evolve into something similar to batchtrader. so far ive got an interface to help manage tws/gateway, batchtrader, auto generate explorations in amibroker, email account balances and email generated trades. batchtrader then auto loads the generated trades and manages the rest.

[ScottMcNab]

Nice !…wont ever be an option for me though so I’m actually glad to have Batchtrader and access to Levente …I am just wanting to make sure that the next version I order will be the final one…so I am also playing around with profit tgts as well as stop loss…will pay for one more version I suspect early next year that has all possible options…the Swiss Army Knife version

[Anonymous]

Scott McNab wrote:

Nice !…wont ever be an option for me though so I’m actually glad to have Batchtrader and access to Levente …I am just wanting to make sure that the next version I order will be the final one…so I am also playing around with profit tgts as well as stop loss…will pay for one more version I suspect early next year that has all possible options…the Swiss Army Knife version

sounds good… ill be happy to share my code once its up an running.

[TrentRothall]

Are you guys trading the r1000 or sp500 with your moc systems? I am in the process of stress testing a system and tentatively thinking about starting next year

[Anonymous]

Trent Rothall wrote:

Are you guys trading the r1000 or sp500 with your moc systems? I am in the process of stress testing a system and tentatively thinking about starting next year

im using the r1000 trent

[Anonymous]

Thanks for the feedback guys. I was in the fortunate position that my one MRV system had turned off about a week or so before the elections and on election day my MOC system generated zero orders so it was easy for me to say “I followed my system”, don’t know what I would have done given a different scenario, but would hope I would have placed the trades.
In the future when backtesting this period the system won’t know any better and in theory our backtests could have taken similar events into account in the past that we are not aware of as they are “just another day” in history.
Easier said than done. Another tick in the experience box.

[Author]

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