Trents Weekly Journal

[TrentRothall]

November Results

ASX WTT = 17.47%
ASX MR = 0.5%
US long/Short MOC = 4.7%

Acc = 6.33%

Small caps really took off this month after a rough start in October. Back in the green (for now). Some positions are looking extended but i said that basically every day for two weeks.

ASX MR i did some more testing and lowered number of positions to 5 @ 20%. i basically will be starting this month with a equal split between my 3 accounts. so even though position size has increased in % terms in $ terms it’s fine i think. although once recommencing i had a partial fill in the first 5 trades… Hopefully will phase it out once i can work out a decent US MR. I have been toying with a aggressive NDX rotation too in place of this. Nick has been talking about his long term bullish bias over next 10 years so that maybe wise.. thoughts? My system i coded in 2017 has been going nicely and fared quite well over Rona so i basically have one ready to go on the NDX

That would give me
Small cap ASX trend following
R1000 MOC
US NDX rotation.

[GlenPeake]

Nice work Trent!

Very solid month for the WTT 😆

[ScottMcNab]

Nice work with the long/short MOC too…would take that every month of the year

[Anonymous]

I also intend to get a NDX aggressive momo system running, as soon as I can get a job and have an employer give me a retirement plan. Hah!

[TrentRothall]

Did anyone try and short OSH last night (7/12)

I couldn’t i think it was cancelled as i placed the trades (can’t remember), naturally it was the trade that would’ve turned a red day to green

[JulianCohen]

Not on my list of entries….

[SaidBitar]

I think the reason for cancelling with that the price is too far from the market price. I had it and it was cancelled directly

[TrentRothall]

MSB.au – why?? ffs

It gaps down on Wednesday after getting a buy signal on Tues. Get filled on the open , then goes into a trading halt after about 10 minutes.

News comes out today and gaps down 35% on open.

Why wouldn’t they go into a halt before the open?

oh well, next 1000 ………..

[JulianCohen]

ASX mate…you’ve been scammed again

[TrentRothall]

for better or worse in sucks me in

[TrentRothall]

Had some good luck today. BRN.au went into a halt yesterday and i thought here we go again another MSB. A nice gap up on news to bring in a 50% winner! Merry Christmas to me. Between my ASX MR up 9% my MOC up 1% and WTT up 2.3% it’s my best day ever $ wise. So i’ll take that even if most of it was luck…

I might possibly be the only one on planet earth to have a losing year (first one) but i feel i’ve wisened up and hopefully better prepared for the next big market turn down.

Merry Christmas all and have a good break. Looking forward too seeing everyone’s stats in the coming few weeks

[GlenPeake]

Well Done on the BRN.au trade and the #Next1000Trades to come!!!!

Nice stats!!! May they continue to head in a positive direction!!!

All the best for Xmas/New Years!!

[TrentRothall]

December

ASX WTT: 1.82%
R1000 LONG/SHORT MOC: 0.36%
ASX MR: 5.83%

Total: 1.57%

2020

Total Acc -9.77%
Current DD: ~-10%
MDD -21.4%

Obviously with the results above it was a very disappointing year. At the beginning of the year I was trading my ASX MR only (my acc size is fairly small), I thought if I can handle the backtested MDD might as well trade my best system… I hadn’t really appreciated the effect that serial correlation of all stocks dropping at once without a bounce would have. My exit mechanism wasn’t suited to this and that is what hurt me. My Previous MDD was smashed but luckily I noticed and went to cash, it could have been a lot worse…

I was a bit nervous after basically losing last years gains in a month and didn’t pull the trigger on a number of discretionary positions that I wanted to get into for a while, the big tech TSLA, APPL AMZN. This cost me a lot obviously and that is what plays on my mind the most. Especially TSLA, after it tagged the $74 previous resistance line – VERY costly. After going to Nicks Noosapalooza Conference in 2015 and a presenter discussing TSLA and Musk I have followed it (stupidly not invested), so it is a bit of a love stock. I also think the noise of twitter has a negative affect on my trading mind set, and definitely did around this period.

Due to some life circumstances I also had to withdraw funds at a bad time which halted my WTT but it is churning away now. I’m not used to trend following and it is a but of an uneasy feeling seeing how far my trailing stop is away from the current price. I am sitting around 20% of open profits and knowing that a lot of that will probably be lost is annoying but it is part of the process.

Re reading some of my thoughts above there are a lot of excuses in there and I don’t want to be someone who blames something else.
Lessons –
1. Diversify (funny how Nick always goes on about this)
2. Drawdowns are more uncomfortable than you think they will be
3. Have conviction in decisions and pull the trigger
4. Need to research ideas from outside of my head…
5. Reach out more

So after these lessons I feel that I am hopefully more diversified and suited for the next market crash/rally. So a good learning year is nothing else.

[GlenPeake]

Hey Trent… it was a tough year on multiple levels…

The good thing is you’re still in the market for the next1000trades…

In addition, you have youth on your side… just think where your trading systems/performance/diversification will be in 20 years time… I wish I had access to the systems / trading knowledge that you do when I was your age. You are well ahead of the Average Joe trader…

Good Luck for 2021.

[JulianCohen]

Totally agree with Glen there mate. You are still in it, and the drawdowns are there as a learning experience…as long as you don’t make the same mistake more than once you’ll be fine

[Author]

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