Travis’ Journal

[twood4]

Time to catch up on reporting:

May 2020 Performance:

NDX Standard: +.1% (50% SHY/50% IEF)
NDX Aggressive: +.1% (50% SHY/50% IEF)
Ivy 5: +1.0%
Triple PP: +.2%

June 2020 Performance:

NDX Standard: +6.8%
NDX Aggressive: +8.6%
Ivy 5: +1.8%
Triple PP: 1.9%

[Anonymous]

Travis that is pretty solid!

[twood4]

July 2020 Performance:

NDX Standard: +6.4%
NDX Aggressive: +19.1%
Ivy 5: +5.5%
Triple PP: 11.3%

[Anonymous]

SWEET!

[Anonymous]

Seth Lingafeldt wrote:

Travis that is pretty solid!

Travis that is pretty solid!

[twood4]

August 2020 Performance:

NDX Standard: 3.5%
NDX Aggressive: +18.9%
Ivy 5: +3.2%
Triple PP: -5.1%

Going forward, I am stopping the Triple PP system, as one of the ETF’s is not longer available. I’ll be replacing it with Ultra PP, which is the same system, but trading 2X leveraged ETFs instead of 3X.

[twood4]

Forgot to post last month, so here is SEP and OCT 2020:

September 2020 Performance:

NDX Standard: -4.0%
NDX Aggressive: -5.4%
Ivy 5: -3.0%
Ultra PP: -2.1%

October 2020 Performance:

NDX Standard: -5.1%
NDX Aggressive: -3.6%
Ivy 5: -0.9%
Ultra PP: -1.7%

[TimothyStrickland]

Travis, is your NDX Aggressive leveraged? I have a standard and aggressive and the aggressive trades less stocks

[TrentRothall]

Hey Tim & Travis, What sort of DD are your aggressive NDX systems getting?

[TimothyStrickland]

Trent, if I don’t include the tech bubble, the worst drawdown my NDX Momo ever got was -35%. It happened once in 20 years. A typical bad drawdown though is somewhere around 20%. I have hit that twice since I started, I can stomach larger drawdowns because most of my money right now are in safer investments like Real Estate and a 401k where my company matches my contributions. The NDX Aggressive can hit -40%, or has once. This account I keep smaller intentionally because it is so aggressive, it has doubled in size just in the last few months. If I didn’t own several properties and a 401k that got matched I probably wouldn’t be so aggressive.

I think Nick gets similar returns as my NDX Aggressive except his drawdowns are only 20% lol. Difference between a Master and his apprentice I guess.

[TimothyStrickland]

Sometimes I get a little FOMO watching my 401k, my 401k is up like maybe 10% of the entire year while my momentum systems are up 70 and 108% but then I go back and look at the drawdown potential.

I am probably going to adjust my NDX systems again, its about that time and try to optimize my main parameter for a little bit less drawdown. The last 2 years watching my systems have been a challenge as my MRV was down 35% and my momo system was down 20 both at the same time, those were some tough days.

Nick and I were seriously considering turning my MRV off, we both analyzed it multiple times and couldn’t find anything wrong with it so we left it alone. Good thing we did because it recovered all its losses and I am actually up for some good profits this year.

One day when I have more time I would like to get more involved in the conversations with all you guys on different system optimization and coding but right now I don’t have much time. I keep it simple and just do what Nick taught me and it is paying off. I am working as a DevOps Engineer full time and going to college full time for a Computer Science Degree so my time is limited. Funny enough though, this course is what got me into learning Computer Science. So I can write my own code lol. Nick’s course literally changed my life in more ways than just trading.

[TrentRothall]

Great stuff Tim for pulling the trigger in DD impressive! Great year. What is the long term cagr on your NDX System?

100% year is the dream!

I started a Data Analytics degree in 2018 but had to withdraw unfortunately, might revisit it oneday. Good work

[TimothyStrickland]

Long term CAGR on my NDX Momo is about 35%
NDX Agressive is about 47%.

Gains so far this month is 20.7 and 27.4%.

[ScottMcNab]

Incredible !

[twood4]

Sorry I missed the earlier system questions. I don’t use any leverage in my NDX systems. The primary difference is position size. I do use 2X leveraged ETF’s for the Ultra PP system, but I’m not currently trading that. I liquidated the account I was trading that in for a different investment, but I will continue to report results just to keep myself in tune with how the system does.

As far as the drawdowns on the NDX Aggressive…worst drawdowns were around 35% in 2000 and 2006, with more frequent drawdowns of 20-25%.

Tim, Congrats on the success you’ve had this year…it’s been great to watch!

NOVEMBER 2020 RESULTS:

NDX Standard: +16.1%
NDX Aggressive: +5.4%
Ivy 5: +6.1%
Triple PP: 3.2%

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