Tim’s Journal

[TimothyStrickland]

June 2021 results

MRV: -4.3%
NDX Momo: +15.4%
NDX Aggressive: +48.1%

[OliverBenson]

Woah! +48.1%!… amazing. What position sizing are you using Tim?

[TimothyStrickland]

The NDX Aggressive system only takes 3 positions, so 33.3% each position. It is similar to Nick’s DTVI but more aggressive. I keep that system pretty low funds(relative to my other systems) and then when it gets to high move a good chunk over to the NDX Momo which is more conservative. I do this because the drawdowns can be pretty unnerving if I had to much money in it. Backtest showed a drawdown of 40%, my momo system was more like 25 which is more reasonable.

[Nick Radge]

Tim Strickland wrote:

June 2021 results

MRV: -4.3%
NDX Momo: +15.4%
NDX Aggressive: +48.1%

Holy crap!

[GlenPeake]

Epic returns on the NDX Aggressive system Tim….. Well done!!!

[TimothyStrickland]

No time to post this weekend so doing it now

Just finished my yearly business taxes. Going to have to pay quite a bit this year due to lots of profits, a good thing of course.

Jul 2021

MRV HFT: -10.1% (109.04% since inception 2019)
NDX Momo: + 20.9% (200.1% since inception 2019)
NDX Aggressive: +27.9% (382.62% since inception 2019)

Have a great weekend!

[Nick Radge]

You’re a friggin beast.

[TimothyStrickland]

Thanks Nick, I learned from the best! One of the greatest things I learned from you was to just make the system robust and let time do the rest. I haven’t really modified the systems outside of occasionally looking to see if the system has fundamentally changed or not. I never would have thought that doing nothing would be better than trying to optimize and figure out every nook and cranny of the market.

[ChrisThong]

Hi Tim,

I read your post in June this year and found that you have done some courses about data science and programming. If I may, can you recommend some courses about data science and programming? Thanks Tim.

[TimothyStrickland]

Hi Chris.

I am actually getting a degree in Computer Science and a Master’s in Data Science. This course taught me a bit about programming in AFL which was a lot of fun so I decided to change my career. I was a Hardware Engineer but after really liking programming I switched to a Software Engineer.

With that said I did take a few courses on coursera that helped me with some of the basics.

I took this one: https://www.coursera.org/specializations/object-oriented-programming
This course teaches you a pretty solid foundation in Java, however you might want to learn python instead since it is more specific to trading.

Here is one for python: https://www.coursera.org/specializations/python-3-programming#courses

I am learning both languages as Java is faster than python in terms of computing speed. I plan on learning C++ as well which is widely considered the fastest language.

[TimothyStrickland]

Just noticed that my rotational systems bought MRNA when it was $61 a share, now it is at $419.05 jeeze.

[Nick Radge]

You’ve done well to hold through that long consolidation.

My first entry was at $69 and exited for a small loss.

Funnily enough at the time, I got a sharp email saying I was dumb to be investing so much in a ‘highly speculative pharma stock’.

Better chase her up and see what her opinion is now…

[TimothyStrickland]

Haha Nick, I think I got a similar comment at work, someone said something along the lines of “Your system just buys things that are cool at the time”. I told the person that my system doesn’t care about any of that, it just buys things based on mathematical probability. I got a deer in the headlights look from him.

I believe I got a little nervous after the first big spike MRNA had and was like, this thing has gotta come back down, this was at a 150 price point. Just shows how wrong I can be.

I got into a habit of writing down when I think my system is wrong and when I am wrong but not actually changing anything, it was more for a mental note.

My system is usually right, 80% more often than I am…This process has helped me trust my system far more than my own opinion.

[TimothyStrickland]

Nick,

I know my system is doing great right now, but once again I want to look at long term, who knows what could happen next year.

I think it might be worthwhile to test the system to compare what would happen if it holds a stock vs not holding it. Referring to your comment earlier “You’ve done well to hold through that long consolidation”.

How do I change how long a stock is held for? I know we have the waiting for the stock to fall out of a certain position (like top 15 or top 20). Would adjusting the rate of change indicator modify that?

I want to play around with seeing, what the difference would make if I hold on to things longer vs getting out sooner. I think you mentioned in the course that holding on to stocks longer can be beneficial.

[LEONARDZIR]

This raises the question of what do you do when time comes to sell MRNA since in the case of TLT it is such a large portion of the portfolio. Would you sell MRNA and invest all the proceeds in just the new buys or do you rebalance the whole portfolio? Interested in Nick’s opinion.

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