Tim’s Journal

[TimothyStrickland]

It looks like another V-shape recovery at this point.

Makes my 10 MA strategy underperform the general market.

I Will see if we can get up past the 200-day MA before the end of the month.

[GlenPeake]

Hey Tim,

In terms of the V-shape recovery….. who knows…. It raises the eyebrows that’s for sure….. Subscribers of the Chartist will have seen Scott’s video(s) from the Global Research section provide his insights on the S&P 500 pattern progressions and the inflection zones i.e. we’re right in the pocket of the 50% retracement zone and just below the 200 Day MA atm, so we’ll have to wait see if the bounce stops here or we just keep going……. (opinions don’t matter, but IMHO, hard to see it continuing to push too much higher from here…. especially with company reporting season still yet to report post-COVID impact etc. Here is Australia, the banks are announcing reduce earnings/dividends etc so who knows).

MR systems, I think the majority of us here have struggled with MR systems of late…. perhaps just a case of being out-of-sync with the market……. which leads to the next point….

Having a suite of systems for diversification purposes….so as you’ve noted in your post, you’re looking at adding more systems to the suite. From a bottom line point of view and a psychological point of view I believe it’s the way forward.

To quote from recent experience, last year when my ASX WTT was hooked up and returning solid results month after month, the fact that the MR systems were flat/down/not doing much was not a concern. From a mindset point of view this was a great/comfortable position to be in….. If I had just been trading the MR systems, then….. a different story….

When I saw your posts (and Mike Rodwell’s posts) about being in TSLA and your positions performing strongly via your Rotational systems earlier in the year…… FOMO kicked in from my point of view and I went down the Monthly Rotational system build rabbit hole (it had been on the todo list, but I just hadn’t gotten around to it) and now I have 2 NEW rotational systems added to my suite of systems.

I guess it’s not a sprint but a marathon…. to quote a sporting phrase, you learn more from your losses than your winners, so now is probably a good to time to step back and review/add/adjust as needed.

Just my 2cents worth.

[TimothyStrickland]

Good insight Glen. I edited my previous post as you noticed because I did not want people to take it as ranting, I was simply just sharing my thoughts so I’ll repost.

In short: The V-shape recovery essentially made my SPX 10 Month MA system irrelevant. Not sure what to do at this point as just putting money into the SPX and leaving do just as well and I am considering this. For those that don’t know my SPX 10 MA system is in my 401k, therefore, I can’t really move things around quickly or invest in individual stocks, so I ended up trying to do a 10 MA system to reduce the drawdowns but that backfired after this potential 2nd V-shape recovery? The backtest was very close anyway, as long as the S&P 500 went through some big drawdowns like 2008, 2000, this system had some potential. However, now the index performs this system by more than double.

My MRV just hasn’t really cut it since I went live with it, it hasn’t performed well at all as Glenn mentioned. I won’t be putting money back into it for a while until it can start producing.

This leads me to a couple of things. I have 2 more weeks of school left and then after that, I am taking Summer off and sit with Nick for another 3 months for the mentor course. My goal is to create a WTT system so I can run it in tandem 50-50 split with my NDX momo (which has been the only system to perform). The NDX momo system has outperformed all my other systems by a huge margin. Oddly enough my momo system got lucky by pulling out at the end of Feb.

Glenn, I agree with you, if anything is clear, its the fact that I need more systems.

My short term plan is to build a WTT with Nick to run alongside my momo, most of my capital will be allotted to that system.
With my 401k instead of running a 10 month MA system which did not backtest very well, I will likely just do some sort of split between the S&P500 and bonds and forget about it.
MRV will stay running and I will likely add a MOC system at some point that way I feel like I have all my bases covered.

I will be mixing my momo/WTT and some amount of cash to meet my drawdown requirements, this all depends on the backtest.

[Nick Radge]

Tim, a 10-ma system trade on an index ETF will only outperform after sustained downtrends.

It’s mathematically impossible for it to outperform during bullish regimes, because it IS the market.

[TimothyStrickland]

Nick, that makes sense. I don’t think I realized that when I made the system a couple of years ago. Although I did backtest it before both of these V-shape recovery type scenarios. If I remember right the backtest was pretty close to the index but without the sustained drawdowns. However, since we have never had a big V-shape recovery I never took that into account and therefore leaves me with the current performance which is lousy, live, and learn I guess.

What I was trying to do back then was to basically create a system in my 401k. Now that I am thinking about it, it doesn’t really work because all the 401k is are a bunch of ETF’s and Boeing stock.

[TimothyStrickland]

MR HFT: +1.3%

MOMO systems: Cash

SPX MA: turned off

[TimothyStrickland]

More of an accountability post than anything else. Since I have been trading and learning from the mentor course I haven’t been very good about doing daily research like many others here. I know Nick said he spends time researching different things every day in the market which I think is an excellent idea. I have not been doing much of anything outside of waking up in the morning and placing my trades, which I have been militant about, I have never missed a single day placing my trades as of yet. The biggest reason has been because I have been attending Computer Science courses full time and trying to work full time at a new position, which has been great, I can work from home now. The school load has now lessened so my goal is to spend at least 30 minutes up to an hour on the weekdays researching new strategies, reading forum posts, reading books about trading, etc.

[TimothyStrickland]

May 2020

MR HFT: +10.1%

[TimothyStrickland]

Surprised I went through Thursday relatively unscathed. Actually my MRV came out the other end with massive profits due to my volatility filter.

Somehow my momentum system is also up pretty well as the stocks it picked didn’t even get touched much during Thursday…

Never happened before but I am not going to look a gift horse in the mouth.

[TimothyStrickland]

I changed my monthly momentum system into a bi-monthly system based on my call with Nick in the attempt to try and reduce signal luck, so momentum system only 50% vested atm.

[TimothyStrickland]

June 2020

MRV HFT: +8.1%

NDX Momo: +9.2%

[Nick Radge]

Nice work Tim

[Anonymous]

Awesome!

[TimothyStrickland]

This TSLA stock…. up 63% for me

[TimothyStrickland]

Started working on my MOC, will see how this goes. I am starting with my MRV as a base just like Nick recommended.

[Author]

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