Tim’s Journal

[TimothyStrickland]

My wife and I take 80% of our income and dump part of it into a 401k where it is matched by our company up to a certain % at which point we dump the rest into my SPX Momo 10 month MA system (The system outperforms the S&P 500 by about 2% with less than half of the drawdown unless something like October happens again lol).

We then take the other 10% and put it into our businesses (real estate and amazon) to grow it.

9% is then split into the more aggressive MRV and NDX Momentum.

The last 1% is put into super-aggressive systems like ROR and Opening Range. The ROR system is essentially a momentum system like my NDX momentum with slightly different parameters running at 2x leverage. The opening range is discretionary so I have to take a position based on current account size, risk size, etc. I keep the opening range account size very low unlike ROR where I let compound. if I make a lot of profits, I pull those out and put it into some other system that way the drawdowns aren’t that bad when they do occur but still keeping the account at a decent enough size to make a good profit during the good times.

[TimothyStrickland]

Posting my results now since I’ll be out of town and likely to post in a timely manner, the only trading day left is Friday (half a day).

Mean Reversion systems

MR HFT: + 6.6% A nice recovery this month, some of the drawdown alleviated.

Momentum (Rotational systems)

NDX Aggressive: +5.2% +7.1% YTD

ROR: +6.1% +5.2% YTD

Moving Average systems

SPX Momo: +4.2% +5.1% YTD

Discretionary Systems

Opening Range: -9.1%

An excellent month for all my systems. Opening range has had a good 3-4 month run things can’t always go up or down.

[Nick Radge]

Great work Tim. That discretionary portfolio certainly swings around!

[TimothyStrickland]

Agreed Nick, its because it’s so highly leveraged in futures, I am thinking about reducing the risk, not much money it to begin with so its not a big deal but certainly something to consider as it grows.

[TimothyStrickland]

Posting early again due to being out of town

Mean Reversion systems:

MR HFT: +1.3% (22% Drawdown now)

Momentum Systems:

NDX Aggressive: + 9.6% (All-time highs) +15.7% YTD
ROR: +11.8% (All-time highs) +15.2% YTD

Moving Average Systems:

SPX Momo: +6.4% (All-time highs) +18.5% YTD

Opening Range: +2.5%

[TimothyStrickland]

I made a calculation error in my results. I went back to look at what my broker statement and here is the amended returns for December. I had to rely on backtesting which does not account how much I have allocated to any position % wise which is why I like to do broker statements.

MR HFT: +3.59%
NDX Aggressive: +12.2% (This is due to the most amount of % being allocated to my winners that have just been crushing it, a good thing in this case).
ROR: +11.8% (similar situation)

SPX Momo:+6.1%

This brings up a concern I have. I have been in 2 stocks for a while and because of that it now far outweighs my other 3 stocks that I am In.

Nick, how do you handle re-balancing in this case? For instance, the amount of money allocated to my top stock is now about over 50% when compared to the stock that isn’t performing well…

[TimothyStrickland]

to be fair, most of the gains in those winners have been in the last couple of months, they have just taken off leaving the underperformers in the dust.

[Nick Radge]

Quote:

Nick, how do you handle re-balancing in this case? For instance, the amount of money allocated to my top stock is now about over 50% when compared to the stock that isn’t performing well…

In theory, if the testing is done without any rebalancing then you should not rebalance.

If it makes you feel uncomfortable, then some rebalancing could be done to normalise the positions.

[TimothyStrickland]

Ok thanks Nick!

[TimothyStrickland]

AMD continues to be good to me

[MichaelRodwell]

Nice work Tim. That one’s a good hold for me too although much less than you at 26%.

Others that are working well:

AMD 26%
SWKS 28% (considering this as a strategic hold a’la Radge for a 5G play
TSLA 20% (rocket ship! ready for this to come crashing back to earth!)

[TimothyStrickland]

haha, nice! I missed out on the other 2, I would think that most are holding AMD right now because of the amazing momentum that it has been doing.

[TimothyStrickland]

It has been a rough 2 years trading. I feel like as soon as I turned my systems on they went into drawdown. Last year, in particular, was just menacing but I learned a lot emotionally. Early on in the year, I was not disconnected to the money and I am sure Nick was amused at some of the emails I sent him haha! Many times I questioned the market, Nick’s expertise, my own expertise, and even if I am cut out to be a trader. Eventually, I disconnected from the money like Nick teaches and survived a series of brutal drawdowns in all my systems. At one point the peak was over 20% in all of them and all of this while the market was recovering! I had heard for years the emotional side of trading was the hardest but didn’t really know what that meant, now I do! It took me about 6-7 months to learn how to trade systematically but then about 1.5 years after that to learn how to confront the emotional side of trading.

Honestly, I look back now and I am thankful this happened right way because I am a better trader for it. I have weathered a bad storm and I am still standing with the rest of you. As of today my MRV has recovered half of its drawdown and is moving back into only 15%, at one point it was nearly 30%. My momentum systems continue to hit record highs alongside my moving average systems.

I couldn’t be more pleased with the instruction I received here, very thankful.

[Nick Radge]

Quote:

…I questioned…, Nick’s expertise,…

Wait…what?

😆 😆

[TimothyStrickland]

MR HFT: +1.7% (Drawdown continues to get less and less)

Momentum Systems:

NDX Aggressive: + 1.4% (all time highs)
ROR: +0.6% (All-time highs)

Moving Average Systems:

SPX Momo: +0.2%(All-time highs)

Opening Range: +7.5% (This system does well in times of panic) aka. Coronavirus scare

Overall: I think my momentum system was up over 10% at some point in the month but gave most of that back the last few days…I have come to expect that. Opening range performs poorly in times of quiet steady gains of the market (last 4 months or so) but then rocketships when people panic.

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