Terry’s Journal

[KateMoloney]

How are you recovering after your hospital visit?

[TimothyStrickland]

Nice job on the MOC and MRV Terry considering the environment we are in.

[JulianCohen]

Oh sorry I didn’t read the () as negative.

[TimothyStrickland]

Seems like I made the same mistake hah.

[TerryDunne]

[TerryDunne]

December 2021

MOC 1000 8.37%
MOC 2000 10.10%
MR 2000 11.33%

Total 9.46%

Very pleasing, especially after Novembers result.

[TerryDunne]

2021 Year

MOC 1000 92.03%
MOC 2000 63.35%
MR 2000 18.74%

Total 79.54%

My first full year of trading, and I couldn’t be happier. Well, of course I could be happier as I was at about 60% by June and had delusions of grandeur (reference bias rules!).

However, the lesser result in the second half of the year has made me pay more attention to systems that do well in low volatility uptrends…and has made me bite the bullet and commit to implementing two rotational systems and a trend following system, directed toward low volatility stocks/environments.

I will launch them both at the end of January, once monte carlo simulations are completed and reviewed. I will add these systems without reducing allocation to other systems as I’m not currently using all of my leverage. Adding these systems (hopefully) provides diversification, reduces overall drawdown and smooths periodic return, so using more of my leverage seems the opposite of risky.

The other major project I will complete in 2022 is administrative – I will fully document all systems and processes as well as set up another company to spread my counterparty risk. I’ll also add my wife as authorised to transact and produce a step by step document outlining the process for closing all positions and converting all balances to AUD, in case of emergency. I will have this completed by the end of March.

What I will not do in 2022 is add more MOC systems – 10 is enough. If I find ones that are better than some I’m running, I’ll drop the ones that aren’t as good.

I would like to add another mean reversion system, but right now don’t have any ideas, well none that are any good. It would be great if any that I find work on the Russell 1000, because right now all of my mean reversion systems run on the Russell 2000 only.

Best wishes to all for 2022.

[Nick Radge]

Great work Terry. You should be very proud of that effort.

[TrentRothall]

Very Impressive Terry

[KateMoloney]

Nice work!

[TerryDunne]

January 2022

MOC 1000 40.06%
MOC 2000 28.18%
MR 2000 -11.05%
Fustercluck* -3.40%

Total 15.53%

Obviously very pleasing.

The ‘Fustercluck’ was two new systems that I’d worked on for months. I was so excited to launch them at the beginning of January, as the back test results were spectacular, but it immediately became obvious that they weren’t working as planned. Thanks to Craig who found the line of code commented out. I only traded them for five days, but that was enough to do some damage. As Nick said, if something looks too good to be true it probably is.

I had planned on launching some trend following systems designed to work in low volatility from the beginning of February. In my view, this is the only market environment where MOC systems won’t do well (i.e. Nov 2021). However, the launch is on hold for at least a month given market conditions and also I’m starting to wonder whether to go down that path. Maybe I should just stick to my knitting? I would be giving up on some diversification though…I’d appreciate any opinions out there.

Best wishes to everyone for February, hopefully another Moderna (or two) is just around the corner!

[KateMoloney]

Nice work Terry !

[TerryDunne]

February 2022

MOC 1000 10.22%
MOC 2000 26.10%
MR 2000 0.00%

Total 12.81%

[KateMoloney]

Nice work Terry, having a good run.

[TerryDunne]

March 2022

MOC 1000 -7.18%
MOC 2000 -11.33%
MR 2000 0.00%

Total -7.08%

Ouch!

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