Terry’s Journal

[TerryDunne]

[TerryDunne]

November 2023

MOC 1000   2.03%
MOC 2000   5.87%
MOC Short  2.45%
MR 2000     1.89%
Closed         0.00%

Total            3.45%

Reminds me of the good old days…

[TerryDunne]

December 2023

MOC 1000  (0.55%)
MOC 2000  (0.23%)
MOC Short (9.23%)
MR 2000      6.08%
Closed         0.00%

Total            (3.00%)

My new short systems took a caning in the first half of the month. I had been trying to make them operate when my MOC 1000 systems weren’t, so that I had orders every day. Given my general philosophy/approach, this was so, so dumb – I seek to find the best times to trade and then put the pedal to the metal rather than be trading all of the time, so what I tried to do was unnecessary and very, very unprofitable…

Note to self: don’t be a dumbass!

It’s amazing what a change of routine and location can do – a couple of days looking at the view and drinking Margaritas in the Mexican sun and the solution found me! I now feel very good about my short systems.

[TerryDunne]

2023 Year

MOC 1000  26.68%
MOC 2000  (8.09%)
MOC Short (7.36%)
MR 2000     40.68%
Closed        (10.00%) (estimated)

Total            2.12%

My most difficult year so far, so much so that in the end I’m just happy to finish with a (very small) profit. Sadly, I made more $$$ from IB interest than I did trading…

Six systems died this year, four MR systems that had to be put down mid year and two weekly swing systems that back tested great but didn’t survive in real life due to bad fills.

On the positive side, four short systems have been added, which I’m happy with after some teething issues.

For 2024, I’d like to add some replacement MR systems (but they have to make it in back testing through the mid 2023 period) and to continue my so far fruitless search for adequate trend/momentum systems, for diversification more than any other reason.

I hope everyone is still in one piece after a difficult year and that 2024 is kind to your trading and your life!

[TerryDunne]

January 2024

MOC 1000   1.10%
MOC 2000   3.38%
MOC Short  6.03%
MR 2000     (0.27%)
Closed          0.00%

Total             2.94%

[TerryDunne]

February 2024

MOC 1000 0.66%
MOC 2000 (0.44%)
MOC Short 4.23%
MR 2000 0.60%
Closed 0.00%

Total 1.55%

[TerryDunne]

March 2024

MOC 1000   (0.07%)
MOC 2000    3.36%
MOC Short  (0.94%)
MR 2000      26.30%

Total               1.72%

[TerryDunne]

April 2024

MOC 1000     5.39%
MOC 2000     4.85%
MOC Short     2.32%
MR 2000     (10.39%)

Total              5.02%

[smurfki0808]

Nice month Terry. I like the way your systems are taking turns to lead!

[TerryDunne]

Hi Sean,

Thanks I’m very happy with how the last few months has gone.

[TerryDunne]

May 2024

MOC 1000   0.30%
MOC 2000  (2.36%)
MOC Short (10.36%)
MR 2000     10.39%

Total           (4.88%)

My hardest month so far psychologically. Early in the month I made a new equity high after a 15 month drawdown. Party time, break out the Cuban cigars. Then I got hammered, particularly one day where my shorts lost enough to wipe out their entire YTD profits…

The great thing about systematic trading/back testing is that I know that 5% down months happen to my systems about once every year, so this is par for the course. Still hard to take though.

 

[BenOsborn]

I feel you there Terry. I had a great start to the month and then everything crapped itself for the second half. Swing system went from 8%/9% up to finishing negative. I had only 2 positive days in the second half of the month. MOC just held onto a gain.

[TerryDunne]

Sorry to hear that Ben.

Tough way to make money isn’t it.

[KateMoloney]

Oh Terry, instead of buying the island next month you will just have to put in on hold for another month

[GlenPeake]

Hey Terry….. Thanks for the update. Unlucky on the short side by the sounds of it….

One thing that goes through my head in relation to backtesting a system and trading a system….. (I’m going to borrow a line from the movie The Matrix here).

“…..There’s a difference between knowing the path and walking the path…..”

Knowing the path  = is running a backtest(s)…. over the past 20 years and seeing all the ‘small bumps’ and the up trending equity curve.
Walking the path = is trading the system day in day out…. through all the (emotional) swings and roundabouts.

Probably not overly helpful at the end of bumpy month, I know…. but it came to mind after reading your thoughts and just thought I’d share it, as it’s something that goes through my mind during bumpy trading periods.

[Author]

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