Terry’s Journal

[TerryDunne]

I’ve finally done my first trade, so now I feel able to post here.

I’ve gone for a ‘soft’ launch of a small percentage of available capital, until I know that any process bugs have been eradicated.

It wasn’t a problem in testing of course but I’m already a tiny bit frustrated that none of my 30 odd MOC trades triggered this week. I think I probably fall into the ‘quality’ approach rather than the ‘quantity’ approach when it comes to MOC/Swing trades, perhaps this is a hangover from my trend following days of the past. I just found that loosening criteria hurt results, often not CAGR but almost always DD and SR.

Anyway, I’m excited to have finally begun after over 2 years of intermittent learning (thanks Nick,.Craig and all of the contributors here) and systems development.

[GlenPeake]

Nice work Terry.

In terms of trades triggering, I’m seeing similar… fairly quiet atm for MR trades being triggered… so you’re not alone there. I’m sure others here might be observing similar as well.

[Anonymous]

Yeah July has been pretty quiet/flat/few trades for me so far.

[TerryDunne]

Well, that provides a bit of comfort, thanks!

[Anonymous]

Hey Terry – the week of the 4th I had no trades, and last week only 12. Today….. well…. we have not closed yet but I have 12 trades live and all are red…. It’s going to hurt.

[Anonymous]

Seth how did you go? Did you end up closing green?

[TerryDunne]

Hi Seth,

Thanks for the information and sorry to hear about today mate.

[Anonymous]

Don’t be sorry! Just another one in the books. The following day almost made up for it, just a few hundred dollars shy

[TerryDunne]

So, I’ve completed my first month, although as I mentioned funds are not fully allocated. Having seen the spectacular results many have had this month, I sort of wish I’d gone all in right from the start – FOMO – but then I remind myself that I will have plenty of opportunity to make money over the next 25 years.

The other side of that is that it’s very nice to start at a good time…

Anyway, because percentages are a bit meaningless for me at the moment,here are some trade stats

MOC 66% wins and W/L ratio of 2.3:1
MR 60% wins and W/L ratio of 4.2:1

Just trying to iron out a couple of process issues over the weekend and hopefully I’ll be good to go fully invested from Monday.

Best wishes,

Terry

[Anonymous]

Jesus christ 66% win on 2.3:1 ratio is spectacular!

[JulianCohen]

Certainly is. Is that what you would have had for July Terry? If it was a longer term statistic I’d be a little suprised.

[TerryDunne]

No, off the top of my head my testing is more along the lines of 54% and 1.1:1.

My back testing and actual trades have the same results give or take, it’s just that I only partly invested so CAGR isn’t meaningful this month. I also had only 9 trades for the month (IRL and back testing) as my stretch is substantial. This would have been the case even if fully invested. 2 (of 4) of my MOC systems did no trades at all…I wonder how I’ll be down the track if everyone is killing it and I’m doing only 9 trades in a month.

[Anonymous]

Hey Terry – what is the trade frequency in a say 10 year backtest for that system? How many positions daily?

[TerryDunne]

Hi Seth,

About 120-150 per year, so 2 or 3 per week, for each system. With 4 systems, that’s say 10 per week.

[Anonymous]

Wow, ok. So those are limit entry and market on close orders for the same day? If so, maybe check out a thread where Matthew does his long-winded-thing and leaves some good nuggets.
https://edu.thechartist.com.au/kunena/trading-system-idea-s/614-starting-out-on-moc.html
If you are happy and confident with your system, then that is great! I’m going to echo though a desire to see 1000 trades per year if you are doing the same type of system as I think you are talking about.

[Author]

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