Scott’s Journal

[ScottMcNab]

TSE trading smoothly…did almost 3% for the part of the month traded it for Aug …so far so good

[JulianCohen]

Nice

[ScottMcNab]

SEP 2018

Rotation

NDX 1.2%
RUI 1.2%
XTO 5.2%

MRV

RUI 1.3%
RUT 3.2%
XAO 0.5%
TSE 1.3%

[ScottMcNab]

RUI Rotation system showing biggest single loss for month since 1995 backtest begun .. profits for the year reclaimed in a month… brutal

[JulianCohen]

Me too. One thing about trend following is there is definitely a lag factor against the benchmark. Still Keep Calm and Carry On

[SaidBitar]

Regarding trend following WTT went from 20+ open profits to almost nothing

Same for rotational systems they went to -ve region and ALGN added more insult

But the only thing we can do is sit and watch, trust the systems

[ScottMcNab]

Hands up if you at least “thought” about testing a new index filter

[TrentRothall]

haha it’s been blood bath hey. I’ve had two stocks fall +25% in a week ouch!

[JulianCohen]

Trent Rothall wrote:

haha it’s been blood bath hey. I’ve had two stocks fall +25% in a week ouch!

I’m not looking forward to marking up my monthly P/L numbers.

[TimothyStrickland]

Same here. All 3 of my tested systems fell outside of my max drawdown tolerance.

ALGN and AMZN are my biggest losers this month!

All I have to say is, next 1000 trades!

[TrentRothall]

Those positions are the same for me to Tim! But iI also have some ASX holdings that have had major losses. I think I’ve wiped away all of last (AU F/Y) years gains this month, or it will be close anyway.

[RobGiles]

Yep it’s been a tough month. My biggest concern is not the drawdown, but the fact that I’ll be going to 100% cash tonight, with no way of recouping the losses for a month should we have a bounce out of an oversold market condition. Of course, the market could keep tanking, which would be easier to stomach.

[JulianCohen]

Rob Giles wrote:

Yep it’s been a tough month. My biggest concern is not the drawdown, but the fact that I’ll be going to 100% cash tonight, with no way of recouping the losses for a month should we have a bounce out of an oversold market condition. Of course, the market could keep tanking, which would be easier to stomach.

That’s all part of the game Rob. It’ll even out in the end. (see backtest )

[ScottMcNab]

I think that is the nice thing about having some different systems Rob. The rotational system may go offline but the MRV will keep on trucking. So while the end result over the long term may be no better than trading a single system, it sometimes makes it easier in the short term to cope with the human traits (in this case FOMO) that try and over-ride our more rational thoughts.

[TimothyStrickland]

Great points guys, thanks for the insight

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