Paul’s Journal

[Nick Radge]

Great work Paul. 

[PaulBailey]

OK, I’m on the sidelines in the US market at the moment, so my month is now complete.

I have spent the month reconciling all of my trading activity into reportable lots that I will call:

PB ETF Strategy which is US based
PB Super AUS All Weather variation
PB stockpicking account

July 2024
– what a roller coaster – was having a tremendous month and then got nailed by the NDX fall mid month
– held on and clawed back some of those losses to finish net positive for the month
– have, once again, switched the US account to cash because I had a need for that money elsewhere

PB ETF System
July report
Capital gain: -2.22%
Income: +0%
Currency: +1.54%
Total: -0.68%

YTD:
Capital gain: +15.2%
Income: +1.3%
Currency: +2.7%
Total return: +19.5%

– this account likely to remain quiescent as I await buying opportunities in my ETF system.
– overall super happy with the year

PB Super AUS All Weather variation
July report:
Capital gain +0.86%
Income return 0.69%
Currency gain 0%
Total return +1.55%

YTD
Capital gain +11.72%
Income return +1.06%
Currency gain 0%
Total return +12.78%

– this account is based on Nick’s Aus All weather system and has a single high conviction stock pick within it too
– loving the simplicity of trading once a month

PB stockpicking account
July report
Capital gain +10.4%
Income return +0%
Currency gain 0%
Total return +10.4%

YTD
Capital gain +26.05%
Income return +0%
Currency gain 0%
Total return +26.05%

– a good month for this account

Overall result July 2024: + 5.7%
YTD 2024: +18.3%

General comment
– somehow, for a month where I’ve gone +5.7% it didn’t feel great – perhaps because it was going so well mid month
– need to keep telling myself that it’s the overall results over months and years that are important
– stop sweating single bad trades and bad weeks
– Nick’s All Weather approach is a tremendous stabilizer on both my account returns and my mood!

Looking forward to reading how the month went for all of you.

PB

[Nick Radge]

Nice work Paul. 

Yes, the AW is a game changer – at least for an old bloke like me. 

[KateMoloney]

nice work Paul !

[PaulBailey]

Aug 2024
– that month was wild, got smashed in the first week or so, worked my way back to a largely break even position overall.

PB ETF System
Aug report
Capital gain: +7.66%
Income: +0.23%
Currency: -2.43%
Total: +5.46%

YTD results are screwed up because I withdrew a large amount of cash to pay a tax bill
Capital gain: +22%
Income: +1.5%
Currency: +0.3%
Total return: +24.5%

– overall super happy with the year

PB Super AUS All Weather variation
Aug report:
Capital gain -0.72%
Income return 0%
Currency gain 0%
Total return -0.72%%

YTD
Capital gain +11.07%
Income return +1.23%
Currency gain 0%
Total return +12..3%

– this account is based on Nick’s Aus All weather system and has a single high conviction stock pick within it too
– loving the simplicity of trading once a month
– happy with results

PB stockpicking account
July report
Capital gain +0.07%
Income return +0%
Currency gain 0%
Total return +0.07%

YTD
Capital gain +26..13%
Income return +0%
Currency gain 0%
Total return +26.13%

– this account swings wildly as only three stocks

Overall result July 2024: + 0.0%
YTD 2024: +18.3%

General
Accounts worked their way back from very poor start to the month so somehow feeling ok about overall break even.

Looking forward to reading how the month went for all of you.

PB

[PaulBailey]

Sep 2024
– lost a bit of money this month I think, was on the sidelines with my ETF system as I seek to recapitalise it.

PB ETF System
Sep report
Capital gain: +0%
Income: +0%
Currency: 0%
Total: +0%

YTD results are screwed up because I withdrew a large amount of cash to pay a tax bill
Capital gain: +22%
Income: +1.5%
Currency: +0.3%
Total return: +24.5%

– overall super happy with the year

PB Super AUS All Weather variation
Sep report:
Capital gain +2.72%
Income return 0%
Currency gain 0%
Total return +2.72%%

YTD
Capital gain +13.66%
Income return +1.23%
Currency gain 0%
Total return +14.89%

– this account is based on Nick’s Aus All weather system and has a single high conviction stock pick within it too
– loving the simplicity of trading once a month
– happy with results

PB stockpicking account
Sep report
Capital gain -6%
Income return +0%
Currency gain 0%
Total return -6%%

YTD
Capital gain +18.5%
Income return +0%
Currency gain 0%
Total return +18.5%

– this account swings wildly as only three stocks

Overall result July 2024: -2.2%
YTD 2024: +16.4%

General
– my stockpicking account let me down a bit this month, but that’s life. 
– I read a great quote the other day – in the short term, the stockmarket is a voting machine, in the long term, it’s a weighing machine
– let’s hope my stock picks are heavy

All the best to everyone!

Looking forward to reading how the month went for all of you.

PB

[PaulBailey]

Feel like I should write this down somewhere:

Stock-picking account (three shares) has made several all time highs this week, having broken through a significant milestone for the first time.

Personal super account – running the Aus AW approach also continues to make ATHs.

I started this process, seriously, almost 4y ago now and the first few years were hard. Very hard. When reward for effort happens, it is v satisfying.

[Nick Radge]

Simple systems applied for the long term…

[PaulBailey]

October 2024 report

PB ETF System
October report
Capital gain: +0%
Income: +0%
Currency: 0%
Total: +0%

YTD results are screwed up because I withdrew a large amount of cash to pay a tax bill
Capital gain: +22%
Income: +1.5%
Currency: +0.3%
Total return: +24.5%

– this account has now been recapitalised, waiting for entries on my ETF system
= no trades this month

PB Super AUS All Weather variation
October report:
Capital gain +6.15%
Income return +0.12%
Currency gain 0%
Total return +6.26%%

YTD
Capital gain +16.43%
Income return +1.22%
Currency gain 0%
Total return +17.65%

– this system just keeps grinding out good months

PB stockpicking account
October report
Capital gain +31.97%
Income return +0%
Currency gain 0%
Total return +31.97%%

YTD
Capital gain +54.25%
Income return +0%
Currency gain 0%
Total return +54.25%

– this account contains three stocks which I have accumulated over the last 4 years into substantial positions
– they all ran this month – +104%; +14.95% and +9.79%

Overall result October 2024: +17%%
YTD 2024: +29%

General
– a month where I kept expecting disaster to appear and it didn’t, resulting in my best single month of trading ever
– I am going to start the process of selling down one of the positions in my stockpicking account to take some money off the table

[TerryDunne]

Nice Paul, well done!

Perhaps we should all just close down our systems and let you stock pick for us!

[smurfki0808]

Congrats on your best month so far Paul, a real cracker!

[KateMoloney]

Great work Paul!

[PaulBailey]

November 2024 report

PB ETF System
November report
Capital gain: +0%
Income: +0%
Currency: 0%
Total: +0%

YTD results are screwed up because I withdrew a large amount of cash to pay a tax bill
Capital gain: +22%
Income: +1.5%
Currency: +0.3%
Total return: +24.5%

– this account has now been recapitalised, and I continue to wait for a suitable entry point
= no trades this month

PB Super AUS All Weather variation
November report:
Capital gain +1.2%
Income return +0%
Currency gain 0%
Total return +1.2%

YTD
Capital gain +19.21%
Income return +1.22%
Currency gain 0%
Total return +20.43%

– this system, for the moment, is performing in the manner Nick described, so I just love its simplicity. Not expecting every year to be +20% but I am loving the lack of volatility overall.

PB stockpicking account
November report
Capital gain -5.15%
Income return +0%
Currency gain 0%
Total return -5.15%

YTD
Capital gain +48.02%
Income return +0%
Currency gain 0%
Total return +48.02%

– this account contains three stocks which I have accumulated over the last 4 years into substantial positions
– a bit of a return to earth for this account – at its worst was down 10% so pretty happy to escape with only the 5% loss
– I began the long process of selling down one of the positions in this portfolio

Overall result November 2024: -2.5%
YTD 2024: +27%

General
– goal for 2025, develop a better way of displaying strategy performance
– I really enjoy reading the month by month updates from you all!

Seasons greetings

PB

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