Len’s Journal

[LEONARDZIR]

I wanted to wish all the forum members a Merry Christmas and a healthy and prosperous 2018.

[ScottMcNab]

Thanks Len…Merry Christmas

[JulianCohen]

Same to you and your family Len

[TrentRothall]

Thanks Len, Merry Christmas all

[LEONARDZIR]

Dec.

US MOMO +0.3%
Nasdaq MOMO -2.0%
US MOC +0.58%
VTI flat

[LEONARDZIR]

I can’t be more thrilled with the money my systems are making in the US market. However I was looking at the monthly chart of the SPY and it looks parabolic. Scary but staying with the systems. Wonder if Nick could comment on the chart.

[TrentRothall]

My thoughts too Len, i have been testing a concentrated rotation system as you suggested on the NDX, it’s already up 10% this month and the Nasdaq chart looks well over stretched. I saw in Nick’s Nasdaq review (By Scott) on his website that they are saying similar and expect a pull back. But who knows could be in 6+ months, i think i’ll buy in next month if my systems ticked all the boxes.

[LEONARDZIR]

Trent, sounds like a good plan to wait a bit before adding money to your nasdaq system. That said I saw a newsletter that compared the us bullmarket to the Japanese bullmarket in the 1980’s. That went on for a very long time so we may have a long way to go before it has a significant correction.

[TrentRothall]

Do you think wait for a pull back?

I was just going to start on Feb 1, i don’t want to wait for a pull back and miss possible gains. I’m taking a longer term view

[Nick Radge]

My view is you’ll be damned if you do and damned if you don’t.

Lighten up positions and we’ll see the rally keep going for another year. Stay the current course and see a reversal of form.

I think volatility will certainly return in 2018. How and why is a mute point.

The only thing we can rely on is the system.

If you’re unsure, then hold off allocating more funds until a decent pullback occurs (>5%) but remember we didn’t see one in 2017.

[TrentRothall]

I agree, plus once i stop one of my ASX MR systems i bet it will rally 20% in six months.

[LEONARDZIR]

Jan results

US MOMO + 3.07%
NASDAQ MOMO +15.9%
US MOC -0.22%
VTI +5.2%

Excellent month for me.

[LEONARDZIR]

These last 2 weeks in the US market has taught me that the easy part of system trading is the coding and testing and the most difficult is staying with the system. I paid attention to the money rather than the process and really became nervous about the money I was losing on this correction even though the percentage drop was well within backtesting parameters.
Today i made the mistake of looking at my portfolio and particularly my MOC intraday. My MOC had gone down 5% the day before and was down another 5% intraday. Every fiber in my body said sell and go to cash. I resisted, stopped watching the market and by the end of the day my MOC was at new equity highs.
Backtesting and living through drawdowns are 2 different animals.
What doesn’t kill you makes you stronger.

[Nick Radge]

Yep. That’s why the 95% fail.

[TrentRothall]

Good insights Len, think we’ve all learnt/been through that the last few weeks

[Author]

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