Kates Journal

[JulianCohen]

When I look at the chart I see that area as flat, whereas the area you have a line under has greater variances in the data points. I would think that the MCS conducted over that area would give less variance between points. Maybe also go out to 300 days and see if the area out to there is flat too.

What does anyone else think? It’s interesting to see how different people see the same data

BTW 156 and 216 are just the points I’m seeing on your graph, so 150 to 220 would suffice.

[KateMoloney]

Thanks for sharing for your views Julian.

Just to add context – I also considered the 17 & 5 year optimizations as well as the R2000 version of the exact same param – which I will also be trading. I choose something that would work reasonably well in all those environments. Does that make sense?

I also look at the data as the graphs can be really deceiving. In this instance, the difference between data points is +/- 0.5 – 1% and all params are profitable. So I can either sweat the small stuff or just trade the dam thing

Maybe its the wrong attitude to have, but I know I’ll never get a system (or param) 100% perfect.

[BenOsborn]

Julian Cohen wrote:

When I look at the chart I see that area as flat, whereas the area you have a line under has greater variances in the data points. I would think that the MCS conducted over that area would give less variance between points. Maybe also go out to 300 days and see if the area out to there is flat too.

What does anyone else think? It’s interesting to see how different people see the same data.

I see it as 2 potential flat areas, one being 102ish to about 150ish and the other being the 156 to 216 region. The first has that outlier around 110ish which may introduce further variance.

When it comes to a value to pick I have been trying to go with a low point in a valley, such as what looks to be about 123 or 189.

I see the probability of downside variance being less here. Probably just stating the obvious but you have further distance to to move either side in terms of values before you get a larger change, rather than say going with 148.

148 looks to be a similar level but move ahead 10 points and there is a large difference to the downside. 10 places either side of 123 and you are roughly at the same level or the variance is to the upside.

[KateMoloney]

Thanks for sharing Ben.

Trading can be so subjective, hey.

I should have posted up the Max DD & CAGR graphs as well … something else to consider when figuring out what the elusive flat spot is

[BenOsborn]

It sure can be!

Yeah I like to sit the Max DD graph below it too to see if one of the flat spots married up.

[KateMoloney]

April 2022

ASX Momo CASH
Growth Port TBC

US TLT -3.67%
US Momo -13.25%

WP MOC -7.68%
TB MOC -0.88%

Some wins for the month

– Continued trading without emotion, despite largest intra month drawdown to date. System later bounced back.
– Finished research for first system redevelopment. Did a soft launch this week.
– Started research for second system redevelopment. Much easier than the first time round.
– Set up a tech kit with power bank, spare batteries, mouse, spare cables etc. Great for travel or emergencies (eg no power)
– Reviewed 3 modules of the mentoring program. Learned some new skills.
– Listened to 8 mentoring calls

May goals

– Research redevelopment of second system
– Review at least 2/3 modules from mentor program
– Listen to another 6 (minimum) mentoring calls
– Complete admin jobs (access to accounts, third party authorisation etc)

Happy trading everyone

[KateMoloney]

Edit:

April 2022

ASX Momo CASH
Growth Port -0.02%

US TLT -3.67%
US Momo -4%

WP MOC -7.68%
TB MOC -0.88%

Been updating how I track and measure portfolio growth and stuffed up some of my figures.

Tracking our annual & monthly financial growth helps my mindset, especially right now when there has been a few losing months in a row.

Learning how to stress test systems before trading systems has been a godsend. Pushing the buttons has never been easier when you know your system performs reasonably well over the long term.

For example, I ran a stress test and assumed that I missed every single trading day that profited over +X%. The equity curve was a little bit chaotic, but the system was still profitable over the long term. It helps me to keep the faith, because the last thing I want to be doing with live systems is to have a knee jerk reaction and tinker.

[KateMoloney]

Over the weekend I created a strategy that performed better on one index VS another, and I wanted to know why that was so.

After speaking with Nick, he had me run a non compounded back test, specifically looking at average profit & loss per trade.

The average profit and loss per trade was pretty much the same on all the indexes, however, trade frequency was higher on one index VS another, which meant compounding was what produced higher returns on the backtests.

It is one thing to see a system that performs well on a back test, but to understand WHY it makes more money is even more useful. Now my next steps in the system design process are clear.

This is another area I am starting to learn about … utilizing compounded & non compounded back tests to assess the health of a system.

[TimothyStrickland]

Good job, its nice to notice things after doing some testing and analysis.

I graduate in August and I’ll have time to do more analysis on my systems again.

[KateMoloney]

Endured largest one day loss in day trading so far. Down 13% & 15%. All within expected range from the stress testing, granted these are outlier down days.

Over the weekend I reviewed my YTD figures and was reasonably happy with the progress – only to get slapped by Mr market today and have nearly half my YTD profits wiped out.

The key for today is to continue my normal trading routines, including research. Today is not a day for a knee jerk emotional reactions or system tweaking.

On a funny note, went out for breakfast this morning and my husband said “Are we going to be like Warren Buffett and order the cheaper breakfast option because the stock market is down?” 😆

https://youtu.be/r8FGa6N7fb8

[danielbarbaro79]

that’s gold breakfast material

[BenOsborn]

Hi Kate,

Looks pretty similar to my loss. The first thing I do when seeing larger losses is run my backtests and if it aligns I seem to feel much better!

[JulianCohen]

I just watched a video outlining the 40 billion that Buffet had put into the market in Q1 this year. Imagine what his actual monetary value drop has been!

So I find it interesting that he has chosen to invest, all be it in selected companies, in a time when looming inflation could be heralding a sustained drop in the markets. He obviously doesn’t see it that way. And he invests with traditional fundamentals in mind, so I guess whatever we are going through now, he sees as temporary; temporary in his case meaning up to a few years

[KateMoloney]

Julian, Warren Buffett is such a great reminder to have a longer term focus (eg years/decades)
We can get so wrapped up in the day to day results. I still have a roof over my head, clean water, food and a husband that supports the trading business through the ups and downs.

Trading wise, I’m back to where I was about 7-10 days ago. Had a nice run recent then *bam* *slap*
… but nothing a bit of chocolate can’t fix. It is the universal cure for everything.

[KateMoloney]

Have you been watching ARK ….?????

I watched a video of a guy promoting her in 2021 as “the best performing fund manager” of 2020. Put a bunch of his net worth into her fund. He doesn’t talk about ARK these days ….

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