Kates Journal

[KateMoloney]

Attached are the metrics for the 90’s/2000’s period. The 2005 – 2021 testing did not produce returns anywhere near these results (nor am I expecting to get those results in the future).

It’ll just help you understand some of those crazy equity curves.

[KateMoloney]

I’ve also been reviewing my systems most profitable days and reviewed the individual trades on those days.

You don’t get to trade in real life all the trades that come up in a back test, so I wanted to check the this in more detail.

I then went back through my daily equity figures and removed some of the most profitable days from my figures, just to see the impact on the returns and whether or not I would still be happy to trade the system.

[Nick Radge]

Quote:

You don’t get to trade in real life all the trades that come up in a back test, so I wanted to check the this in more detail.

In theory, you should be very close.

[KateMoloney]

They are close. The last two days I’ve missed 2 trades. Asked IB and they said one order wasn’t placed and the other reason a trade was missed was because the low (entry point) was after hours trading which I am not set up to buy.

I’ll email you.

[KateMoloney]

Dec 2021

ASX Momo +11.84%

Growth Port +1.58%

US Day Trade +7.57%

US TLT -8.05%

US Momo +5.29%

2021 Results

ASX Momo +9.77%

Growth Port -5.75% – started July

Day Trade +7.78% – started mid Nov

TLT +2.31%

US Momo +5.74% – started July

Been trading my day trade systems for 7 weeks now, got my process down pat.

Have spent the holiday period creating a second day trade system (MOC). Got much more creative second time round and the results are better than the first system I am currently trading.

Goal is to trade second day trade system by mid January.

[KateMoloney]

Started trading second day trade system with a small account. Full capital will be allocated by mid month.

First trading session the loss was 8.8% (nice new year present).

The process of creating the second system has been so much easier (and more inspiring) than first time round. My confidence has improved a lot, I had fun and was creative with different rules and even had the confidence to try some code myself (which is huge for me because I still consider myself illiterate with coding).

Very grateful for Nick & Craigs support. The mentoring program has been excellent – I really appreciate the focus on getting people to take action and trade (rather than learning theory and not using that knowledge to trade).

There is still a lot for me learn and lots of knowledge gaps to fill etc, but I’ve learned enough to confidently trade and am filling the gaps as I go. When you have skin in the game, you learn a lot more – and the learning sticks.

Nicks certainty has been very helpful, especially at times when I’ve doubted myself or doubted that this will work, sometimes it just seems “too simple”.

Looking forward to seeing the long term results and the growth (professionally and personally).

[Nick Radge]

You’re doing great Kate. #HWPO

[KateMoloney]

Been reading progress journals since the beginning (for the second time)

Trying to learn from other peoples mistakes and successes.

Inspiring to see how peoples trading has evolved over time.

On an interesting note … day trade system up 11% over night. Mum invested some money into the system on Sunday, and since this happened last time she invested, I have ascertained that she is a lucky charm. Will have to backtest this theory by asking her to invest weekly (or daily).

And Glenn … before you think of responding, please don’t, anytime you speak the market seems to punish

[KateMoloney]

Edit: up 13.5% over night on the two systems I designed.

(insert crying tears of gratitude emoji here)

Just capturing this moment here because markets are always in flux and I want a reminder that these days are possible. I’ve experienced more ass whooping than profits, so its a nice reminder that the other side is there too.

Last night I was playing with spreadsheets on long term compounding returns and couldn’t imagine what that would look like.

Got a painful ear infection (post surgery issue). But the pain isn’t noticeable when I work on the trading business. Freaking loving it.

[MichaelRodwell]

A few slaps in the face early on are useful.

I’m just numb now.

[ScottMcNab]

I think it was Said who posted in his journal a few years back the results of an analysis he had done on his MOC system at the time…i cant remember exactly but it was something like 90% of gains for that year had come in just 5 of the trading days …they certainly are a different beast

[KateMoloney]

It certainly is helpful early on to lose. I am not cocky about this.

[KateMoloney]

I went through my systems and deleted the big winning days from the backtest to see if the system was still profitable, which it was.

Big winning days are nice, but I didn’t want to rely on them. Just because a trade comes up in a backtest does not mean you get it in real life. One of my fears was that not all my orders would be filled on the big winning days. So I’ve done some pretty detailed analysis on my big winning days to see if the trades would get filled, but removing them from the back test gave me the confidence to trust in the system and that the little wins are more important than the big days like this.

Completed todays back test and all but one trade were missed. Out of 93 trades to miss one is pretty good, but I’ve had plenty of missed orders on other days, due to being low of the day, not enough vol, user error etc.

[KateMoloney]

Taking away all winning days over 5% over the 15 year back test period is a good exercise to go through …

Day Trade System #1

61 days with winning days over 5%

Day Trade System #2

83 days with winning days over 5%

CAGR reduced in both instances by nearly half, but CARG metrics were still desirable – I would still trade it (and that was leaving the big losing days in the metrics).

A good reminder that whilst the big winning days are nice, it is the little wins the bulk up the trading capital in day trade/MR systems. The big winning days are few and far between and they should be considered a bonus.

[KateMoloney]

Last night I learned a very valuable lesson.

Lets just preface this by saying I’m on some strong medication from an emergency surgery that is messing with my mind/sleep. So I’m not my usual self.

A certain someone (won’t mention any names hey Nick LOL) tweets “Looks like its going to be a nasty trading session”

My mind goes into over drive. Shit … do I cancel my trades … do I scale back the leverage ?

After 5 minutes of deliberations I decided to stick to my system and avoid the chatter on twitter.

So I went to bed, had some crazy dreams about losing a bunch of money (I told you my meds are really good), woke up at 3am, checked the trades and the total account was only down 0.7%.

LESSON LEARNED … don’t listen to gurus on twitter.

[Author]

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