Kates Journal

[KateMoloney]

ASX Momo -7.98%
Growth Port -0.99% (1 trade away from being fully invested in this portfolio)

US Momo -0.71%
US TLT +6.41%

Started the system design component of the mentor program. Looking forward to designing some shorter term strategies.

[KateMoloney]

The ASX momentum has taken a hit today. The biggest one day loss I’ve been through so far -6%.

Level of emotion? Zero point zero of f*ck all.

Profits since December 2020 wiped out, portfolio is back to breakeven.
Thinking it is a good opportunity to top the portfolio up.

Grateful for the constant learnings (and slaps) that the market provides.

[Nick Radge]

This is the email that was sent to ASX Momentum (only) members:

---

As you’re probably aware the ASX Momentum strategy is currently in a drawdown (a decline in equity).

This is completely normal and well within the realms of what is expected.

Our extensive testing, going back to 1995 and covering many market events, suggests the 5 worst drawdowns have been:

-26.7%
-25.2%
-23.7%
-19.5% (current)
-18.9%

Every investment strategy sustains some type of drawdown. Buy and Hold regularly has 50% drawdowns, some double what we’d expect with this strategy.

The ASX Momentum strategy has shown itself to fully recover from drawdowns in 12 – 14 months*.

Indeed, Trish and I just increased our allocation to the strategy by 25%. The logic is simple. Our rigorous testing shows the strategy always recovers*, and that, for the most part, the worst of this drawdown is over.

Drawdowns are not comfortable. But they are part-and-parcel of the journey to successful investing.

I’m here to answer any questions you may have.

Nick

[KateMoloney]

Thanks Nick.

Good email. I have some friends who are members of the chartist and didn’t get that email (they have full membership).
I’ll flick them a copy.

[JulianCohen]

Just to let you know Nick, I didn’t get it either…

[KateMoloney]

Julian, are you a full member? I am and I didn’t get it.

Believe it went to ASX momentum members only.

[Nick Radge]

It only went to members who only subscribe to the ASX Momo.

[JulianCohen]

Ah OK

[KateMoloney]

September Results

ASX momentum -11.55%
US TLT -6.63%
US momentum -0.24%
Growth portfolio -0.99%

MR system design still in progress.

Spent the last week or so moving and dealing with some health issues (not serious, but taken time to get MRI and other tests etc). A bit annoying because I had surgery for the same issue last year, but there is always something to be grateful for in times like these – we live in a first world country with great health care and have the funds to pay for private care.

Been looking forward to working on some more testing and developing ideas. Aiming to have a productive month.

[KateMoloney]

Helpful document (from Nicks video) for default Amibroker settings for backtesting etc.

For some reason the settings keep changing without my changing them.

Good reference guide.

[KateMoloney]

General update.

Still working through system creation – a day trade MR strategy.

The course has really stretched me to grow. Some days my brain physically hurts from the new skills/learning. Have a very basic knowledge of coding now and able to fix some basic errors, and add basic coding ideas (still need Craig’s wizardry to patch things up though!).

Probably the biggest challenge has been coming up with ideas for the trading system and seeing how it will all come together. I remind myself daily that this journey is a marathon, not a sprint. The system I start with will be very different to the system I have in 2 years time as my skill & experience evolves. I want to be in this game in 10 years time (and highly profitable too .. not one of those traders who does it for entertainment).

Grateful for Nick and Craig’s guidance, as well as this forum.

With system design, Nick has pushed me to think for myself … which has been a great way to learn. At the end of the program I want to look at WTT code and some of the other pre-pack codes … but going to wait a few months so I can challenge myself to think for myself rather than seeking out the easy answers.

[GlenPeake]

Kate wrote:

General update.

Probably the biggest challenge has been coming up with ideas for the trading system and seeing how it will all come together.

Yep, can relate to this… this is something that I think most find a ‘little’ challenging initially…. but after a while you do start to build up a ‘shopping trolley’ of ideas and eventually it becomes like picking different ideas off the shelf and trying different combinations…. even trying the opposite of your original idea you had in mind can turn not much, into a winner.

[KateMoloney]

I look forward to that shopping trolley of ideas!

For now, just trusting the process and trying not to judge myself too much.

[KateMoloney]

Another update.

Been working on the system every day. Still got lots to learn but enjoying the process.
I have not been happy with my MR system metrics so far. Not sure if its unwise, but I’ve been using the MR system results
from the chartist website as something to aim for …. 31.54% CAR, – 16.69% DD, on margin @ 25%.

Made some changes to system on the weekend and it improved metrics with 25% leverage are averaging 20% CAR/ 15% DD & 32% CAR / 22% DD.

I am want to realistic in that trading will take time to master, but I also don’t want to settle for metrics that I’m not happy with. I know over time the system will evolve as I do, but I also know that I want to start trading something I am reasonably happy with.

Been running through the Optimization process and revisiting the course material (section 3).

Also got a list of about 8 tasks to complete in relation to the testing. Completed 3 so far.

[SaidBitar]

When you say MR I believe you are referring to day trading system since it is the only one that you can use margin 4:1
as you mentioned I would aim towards 32% and -15% DD + tens of thousands of trades and winning percentage around 55%
but if you mean by MR swing trading style first you can not use 4:1 margin and the results that you have 32% and -22%

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