Kates Journal

[smurfki0808]

Kate, I’m sorry to hear of your further losses. You’ve a lot going on, so be kind to yourself, and let the trading take care of itself. Best regards.

[Nick Radge]

oh dear. So very sorry to hear Kate. You’re having a tough time of it lately.

 

[GlenPeake]

Sorry to hear Kate. Take care of yourself.

[RichardKoziel]

Hi Kate,

So sorry to hear about your loss. I will keep you and your family in my thoughts and prayers.

[KateMoloney]

Thank you everyone for your messages.

My Mum passed away recently. I flew to Switzerland to say goodbye, now we are in the process of finalizing her affairs.
Because of the brain tumor she left a financial mess behind. It has really taught me the importance of proper estate planning and setting up power of attorney to manage your affairs if you are incapacitated. Something to think about for our trading accounts … giving our family instructions on how to access and close off trades.

Personally, I’ve just started to turn the corner (mentally speaking). I have a wonderful family in Switzerland, whom I barely knew, and was able to connect with through Mums passing. Understanding Swiss finance and law has made me really appreciate the opportunities we have in Australia. My counsin built her first house. $1.8M AUD to build a average quality 170sqm home. 

I’ve continued trading every day, albeit neglecting some of regular practices … now catching up. The cool thing was putting in the trades and not having ANY emotion about it. This has been the most detached I’ve ever been to trading. 

Australia

WTT +1.22%

US

MOC #1 -0.14%
MR #1 +1.62%
MR#2 +6.79%

US TLT +2.57%
US AW +0.8%

 

[KateMoloney]

DJT share
Short Trade
circa 22% profit

I really love Donald Trump because of this trade LOL

Most of the drawdown in the MR system is gone thanks to that trade.

Shows the power of sticking to a system. You never know how or when the tide will turn. 

[BenOsborn]

Sorry to hear about your mum. I had a friend’s father develop a brain tumor (undiagnosed for a long time) and pass away. Finances were in a mess also and it was clear he hadn’t been thinking straight for a while.

[Nick Radge]

Oh dear. So very sorry to hear Kate. Poor finances is a very common issue for next-of-kin. Hope you get it sorted soon.

[KateMoloney]

Hi Ben. Sorry to hear about your Dads friend. Unfortunately brain tumors are incurable. They can be managed if dectected early enough.
The hardest part for family/friends is the change of personality. 

There is a doctor in Australia who was diagnosed with a glioblastoma, which is the worst type of brain cancer. He experimented on himself and now the cancer is gone.
Hopefully it will lead some research to help others.

[KateMoloney]

Thanks Nick.

Finances for next of kin is a huge issue. 
I had no idea how complicated things can get. Especially with two countries involved.

We’ll sort it out … 

[KateMoloney]

WTT +3.98%

US AW +10.71%
US TLT +9.85%

US MOC Long / Short -9.04% 
US MR Long / Short -11%
US MR Long / Short +0.32%

Account +1.22%

The losses for the MOC and MR systems were driven by the short side. The worst monthly loss on the short side in the back tests ever. Mainly after the week after the election. There were 2 trades with sizable profits that were missed, which was frustrating, and it happened the month before. All my shorts are RUI with high stretches. Have switched the short side off for now. The shorts were only the “creme” of the systems so to speak, mainly acting as a buffer during years like 2022/2023.

[GlenPeake]

Hi Kate,

I can’t comment much on the MOC short side systems…. as I haven’t really developed/tested too much there….. and not sure of the % ratio in terms of how much the Shorts contributed to the DD vs the Long side.

…..but on the Long side for MOC’s, generally speaking  some of the MOC LONG systems I monitor, 2024 has been fairly mediocre in terms of returns…. however, the backtests will show this happens from time to time over the years….

This link/post here will show the year by year break down…. for the 9 systems I track.
MOC

For NOVEMBER, this combined system was -2.2% return for the month….so nothing dramatic etc, just the ups and downs of trading I’d say……. The break down was:
2x Systems Positive return
2x Systems Flat/breakeven return
5x Systems Negative return

It always seems to be the way, that the ‘fill(s)’ we miss from time to time, end up going onto be the trades that kick on…..

2024 Monthly MOC (9x systems) breakdown
 

So…. not sure if any of this helps or not…. but you’re trading a diversified suite of systems so that when a couple of the systems have a red month, then hopefully the other systems offer that diversification/offset etc….. which resulted in a positive month by the looks of it for you. 2024 has been a year where we’ve seen the longer term Momentum based systems out perform etc……how long that continues for, who knows….

 

[KateMoloney]

Thanks for the insights Glen.

My long MOCs were fine performance wise. The short side was the majority of the drawdown, and it had its worst DD in the entire backtest – by far.
Because the short side is only 15% of the total performance of the long/short system, I’m happy to put it on hold for now and review.

Its been about 6 months of trading MR long/short and 12 months of MOC long/short, so got some good data to go off.

The theory of trading short was to turn rough years into profitable ones, like 2022/2023. Although, as you say there is the issue of missed fills and they tend to be the nice profitable ones. I traded shorts in the RUI only and with a high stretch.

Will be doing a review. If the short side was say 50% of the performance of a long/short system, I think I’d be forgiving. When its missing good fills and only the creme of a system so to speak, its not really viable to continue trading long term.

 

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