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Update:
Day trade 1 is -6% loss on initial capital in USD (41.06% drawdown)
Day trade 2 is -26% loss on initial capital in USD (36.66% drawdown)Funnily enough, when converted back into AUD the losses are nearly neutralized because we bought USD at 0.78 – 0.80 and now its 0.64.
So I see this as an opportunity to learn on the profit from Jan 2022, and then the exchange rate funding the rest of my learning journey
The initial loss on capital feels very comfortable, it is the breaching max drawdown in testing that has me feeling the most uncomfortable at the moment.
Been thinking through ideas on whether I add a regime filter to the MOC, wait for X months of profitability, wait for Close > XdayMA, wait for the 50bps+ rate rises to stop, rebalance the portfolio, trade a new version of MOC (eg change leverage, position sizing). In some ways I am reluctant to change my MOC too much, I currently use a mixture of different leverage/position sizing as I wasn’t comfortable using full leverage. I found using a mixture of leverage had a good risk/reward (for me) and the daily volatility of the system was within my comfort zone. So something like a regime filter or dynamic stretch may be a simple solution, or trading the equity curve (as per article Nick posted).
I know I keep saying this but…. the initial plan/strategy when I started trading in November 2021 has really helped me during this time. As soon as my predetermined limit was reached I followed my plan and exited right away. A plan is not emotional. I will be readjusting this plan when I re enter the market.
The goal is not to be one of those traders that sits out for 6 months due to fear.
2022 Summary
Overall account -15.57% (in AUD)
June was the worst month at -6.87%
Dec was the second worst month at -4.07%
Best month was Jan & March at 9.38% and 6.91%2022 was my first full year trading my own strategies. What a year to start!
When I started the mentoring program, I studied how other traders handled 2020 … so maybe I’m the one that manifested 2022
Feeling pretty grateful to have only lost -15.57%. The power of having multiple strategies was not lost on me.
Low light of the year was missing out on a high profit day in Feb, my results would have looked different had I traded that day. On the other hand, we were about to get flooded and with a death of a close friend, I followed my trading plan and did not trade. There will be plenty more opportunities to make money in the market.
Highlight was being able to continue mentoring with Nick and Craig. Around September/October I got to a point where I felt I could code/run AB and design strategies independently. No expert by any means, but having the confidence to operate independently means if Nick/Craig get run over by a truck, my trading business can continue.
Also really enjoyed connecting with other traders offline. Looking forward to more of that in 2023.
My computer had a meltdown and corrupted some of my excel files. I’ve redone the performance tables 3x and lost them each time to a computer tantrum, so updates below are from memory.
I have backup computer to run trade AB explorations, and thankfully all files are backed up.
Overall account -4.87% (this is accurate)
ASX Momo & US TLT took the biggest hit, approx -9% (do I blame someone for this? … asking for a friend
)Swing strategies – down approx 1.5%
[list]
[*]Had an issue exiting a TSX stock that cost me double the loss it should have, currently looking into this.
[*]This week ASX swing missed a 4% profit trade. I think it was due to it being the low of the week, but am monitoring it as some trades are only getting partial fills, which is costing profit….
[/list]MOC strategies down approx -4%
[list]
[*]The majority of the drawdown was due to 2x trades that dropped circa 20% over night, a bit frustrating as the DD was 1.5% prior, but such is trading
[*]I also took a trade that went up 16% over night
[/list]This month I have set myself three challenges
1) Buy a computer that stays alive – thinking of a Dell laptop with 64GB of ram
2) Play around with real test for 2-3 hours a week & finish the you tube tutorials
3) Stick to my new trading routine 100% – rules are no news/twitter/market news before 7am. I work out at the gym before I check over night trades. Aiming to reduce external noise so I can focus on my own game.happy trading everyone.
Feb 2023
ASX Momo -9.11%
ASX Swing -3.50%TLT -8.39%
MOC 1 -5.95%
MOC 2 -5.17%TSX Swing -3.7%
Combined:-4.87%
March 2023
ASX Momo -0.02% (added dividends from Feb/March)
ASX Swing -4.15% (drawdown since inception -3.75%)TLT -3.64%
MOC 1 -6.15%
MOC 2 -4.10%TSX Swing -7.09% (drawdown since inception -7.99%)
Last few months been tough to trade.
During March I had a couple of issues with order execution which added another 1-2% to the drawdown for MOC and TSX swing. Murphys law, it *had* to happen on the trades that hurt the bottom line.Been chipping away at RT and converting strategies across. Am now working on adding more MOC strategies to diversify the same capital across more strategies that are less correlated that the ones I have. A few people from this forum (you know who you are) have been very helpful with converting to RT … thank you so much!
On the mindset front, quit eating chocolate, started doing reformer pilates and lost a bit of weight. Mindset is in tip top shape.
Next months objective is to find the elusive trading holy grail, buy some taco trucks and establish a cult of some sort ….
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