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September 7, 2023 at 11:02 pm #115788JulianCohenParticipantSeptember 30, 2023 at 3:04 am #104282JulianCohenParticipant
September ’23
Short-Term Systems
US Combined MR: 0.14%
ASX Weekly Swing: 0.16%Long Term Systems
Long Term NASDAQ: -5.10%
US Momentum: -10.84%
US WTT: -8.65%ASX Growth: -4.80%
ASX Momentum: -10.21%
ASX Weekly: -5.31%ETFs
USD All Weather: -3.42%
ASX All Weather: -2.53%
Indices: -2.10%Total Account: -3.84%
Rolling Volatility: 12.95%November 1, 2023 at 12:59 am #104283JulianCohenParticipantOctober ’23
Short-Term Systems
US Combined MR: -2.95%
ASX Weekly Swing: 2.62%Long Term Systems
Long Term NASDAQ: 0.70%
US Momentum: 0%
US WTT: -3.56%ASX Growth: -3.30%
ASX Momentum: -1.92%
ASX Weekly: -2.83%ETFs
USD All Weather: -1.09%
ASX All Weather: -1.51%
Indices: -2.10%Total Account: -2.61%
Rolling Volatility: 14.30%December 1, 2023 at 7:42 am #104284JulianCohenParticipantNovember ’23
Short-Term Systems
US Combined MR: 1.50%
ASX Weekly Swing: 1.37%Long Term Systems
Long Term NASDAQ: 1.60%
US Momentum: 0%
US WTT: 22.99%ASX Growth: -1.35%
ASX Momentum: 0%ETFs
USD All Weather: 3.66%
ASX All Weather: 3.07%
Indices: 13.95%Total Account: 5.35%
Rolling Volatility: 13.34 %Pretty happy with this month. US_WTT was due to ROVR and the ETFs Indices is an amalgamation of Larry Connors strategies carefully curated and changed. I figured that since he wrote them there has been a long period of Out of Sample that works for most of them. Some spectacularly failed in 2020. I put them together as a portfolio of strategies and used top down mode to control things as I wanted.
December 1, 2023 at 9:57 pm #115896ScottMcNabMemberHi Julian.. these are his shorter term (eg rsi) strats on index etf ? He also had some 3-4 bar chart patterns (with names like blast off or something?) (for futures I think) that he published a book on…i tried testing these back in 2017 but didn’t have any joy…but I have always found the stuff he published with Cesar seemed to work fine
CheersDecember 2, 2023 at 9:22 am #104285JulianCohenParticipantI have used a few ideas Scott
On a diverse portfolio of ETFs I have used:
One IBS strategy
One RSI strategy
One Moving Average IBS strategy
One Stochastic strategy that I purloined from Ali Casey (StatOasis on youTube)…he does a lot of data mining, but his basic principles of back testing are very aligned with ours and he has some good ideas that are worth testing.On Indexes only I use an RSI strategy
I also amalgamated in the Double 7s strategy and the VXX trend following strategy.
Some ideas, like the TPS idea I found broke down in out of sample. But I figured that even if a squllion people are using RSI, he wrote these strategies in 2008 or earlier so there is a ton of time out of sample that they have continued to work. Plus being able to combine them in one portfolio in RT whilst controlling duplicate holdings and allocations gives me a greater deal of confidence that this is a robust strategy.
I have also leaned towards ETFs that have a tendency to trend, so multiple indexes in various countries, commodities, that sort of thing.
December 2, 2023 at 11:12 pm #115903ScottMcNabMemberVery interesting.. thank you. Great to get new ideas about where to go fishing
December 30, 2023 at 5:46 am #104286JulianCohenParticipantTotal Year Returns
I thought it might be a good exercise to post total year returns for each system so I could think about what is working and what is not. Before checking my guess was that the MOC/MR strategies were actually worse than they actually proved to be, probably as I have a higher account size there, so the cash loss appears worse than the percentage loss; that will come as no surprise to Nick of course. Overall I’m happy with the portfolio and especially the All Weather and Index additions I have made this year.
Short-Term Systems
US Combined MR: -4.20%
ASX Weekly Swing: 4.03%Long Term Systems
Long Term NASDAQ: 7.10%
US Momentum: -0.30%
US WTT: 21.80%ASX Growth: -2.30%
ASX Momentum: -7.50%ETFs
USD All Weather: 11.99%
ASX All Weather: 0.05%
Indices: 14.00%Total Account: -7.11%
Rolling Volatility: 11.80%
January 2, 2024 at 11:28 pm #115927Nick RadgeKeymasterThanks Julian.
Nice result with the US WTT.January 3, 2024 at 3:27 am #115932JulianCohenParticipantYes a big recovery in the second part of the year. 2022 was a shocker for it though so swings and roundabouts
January 4, 2024 at 9:50 am #115936ScottBiltonMemberNice result Julian! There was a lot of ups and downs in 2023, so your results is great.
February 1, 2024 at 7:35 am #104287JulianCohenParticipantJanuary ’24
Short-Term Systems
US Combined MR: 3.79%
ASX Weekly Swing: -1.00%
ETFs: 2.85%Long Term Systems
Long Term NASDAQ: 3.79%
US Momentum: 4.34%
US WTT: 2.80%ASX Growth: 2.63%
ASX Momentum: 2.91%ETFs
USD All Weather: -0.56%
ASX All Weather: 4.37%Total Account: 3.48%
Rolling Volatility: 11.87%March 1, 2024 at 4:17 am #104288JulianCohenParticipantFebruary ’24
Short-Term Systems
US Combined MR: 2.13%
ASX Weekly Swing: -1.16%Long Term Systems
Long Term NASDAQ: 9.05%
US Momentum: 14.95%
US WTT: -1.47%ASX Growth: 6.35%
ASX Momentum: 10.55%ETFs
USD All Weather: 7.70%
ASX All Weather: 2.53%
ETFs: 11.62%Total Account: 7.30%
Rolling Volatility: 12.05%March 1, 2024 at 4:34 am #116005KateMoloneyParticipantLike a good old golf green
March 1, 2024 at 5:24 am #116006JulianCohenParticipantYes quite a nice start to the year…however I’ve seen this before so I’m not going out shopping yet!
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