Last Tuesday (20/11) my MOC system returned 9.7% which was an unexpected but very welcome surprise after the painful October. This was the highest daily return since I launched the system in April. For whatever reason, my assumption so far was, that MOC systems would run fairly steady without significant ups and downs. In other words, missing out a day should not really have a significant impact on my annual performance.
But this is not true. The backtest for my MOC system is delivering 19.8% net profit for the year coming out of 194 trading days. When I run a Walk forward analysis for 2018 with 1 day step size, more than 85% of trading days delivered < 1% profit/loss. Only 6 days brought up a profit/loss > 4%:
5/2: -4.1 %
6/2: +10,9%
8/2: -4.1%
9/2: +5.7%
10/10: -5.1%
20/11: +9.7%
The 2 days with the highest peaks were profit days. If I would have missed those days, my performance for the year would look entirely different. Hence, my simple learning: When you run a MOC system, better not missing out a single day. It may be expensive.
