- This topic is empty.
-
ASX growth: – 1.53%
US MOC: + 3.07%
US MR: switched-off
US NDX Mom: +3.94%
US SPX Mom: + 3.60%
My account was up 1.05% in December. For the year 2019, I was down – 1.4%. Disappointing. I made some operational mistakes and currency was also against me. Nevertheless, I wonder if my systems are really competitive. My current thoughts:
[ul]
[li][/li]
[li][/li]
[/ul]are my systems too simple not really delivering an edge (anymore)?
[ul]
[li]have market conditions and trading behaviour changed over the last few years that backtest results from the past 10 or 20 years are not really meaningful anymore?[/li]
[li][/li]
[/ul]I.e. if a I take my US Swing system running on NDX. 3 simple criteria, no curve fitting. I launched the system mid 2018.
After it went live it looks almost as if somebody would have pulled a plug.For now, I will switch-off my NDX swing system, stick to my MOC system, one of my momentum systems and the ASX growth portfolio (from Nick). I also plan to run an ETF based system (I like the monthly Meb Faber approach).
Thanks for your feedback, Michael.
2-3% loss by itself would be no reason for me to switch a system off. And of-course: This is the typical beginner mistake to run away from a system if it doesn’t deliver the expected results at the first place.
The reason for my doubts with this particular system is related to the fact how extreme the performance was going down, and: Somebody recently posted an article here in the forum that professional system trader running swing systems on SPX and NDX increased significantly over the last couple of years which would be one reason why it became harder to make a profit in these markets.
So, given the limited capacity I have for further developing my systems (I have a pretty demanding full-time job), I thought it’s better to pause the system for now.
Performance from 1995-2005 was even better delivering CAGR of 58% with 71% winners.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.