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December 27, 2022 at 4:10 pm #102245RobertMontgomeryParticipant
Tim Ferris, recently shared this article that applies to taking the good metrics with the bad in order increase a competitive edge. I copied and pasted everything below from Tim Ferris’s email newsletter as he did a good job pulling out the best nuggets from the article.
CAGR vs. MDD was the obvious one for me that applies to trading, but I’m interested to hear what others have found to be “three point shot” of trading … dynamic stretch or dynamic position sizing, etc.
Currently buy and hold feels still like the consensus or the old mindset, will rules based trading ever become the norm? Not that I want it to be, but by being a trend following trader it does require us to deal with the emotions that come with stepping away from the crowd.
I was able to read the entire article before it was pulled down from here https://businesnewz.com/2022/09/30/the-art-and-science-of-picking-winning-teams/
It is available here also The art and science of picking winning teams | Financial Times (ft.com)“The art and science of picking winning teams” by Ed Smith (@edsmithwriter), author of Making Decisions. For the cricket-naive folks, like me, think of “selector” as a scout or recruiter. From Wikipedia: “A selector in cricket is a person given the administrative duty to choose the players that will represent a particular team in a match. There is typically heavy scrutiny on national team selectors, including those of the major Test cricketing nations like Australia, England, and India.”
My favorite part of this article is related to the importance of accepting negative metrics if you want to outperform any consensus. Here are a few excerpts:“Whenever someone innovates in business or in life,” argues the former poker player Caspar Berry, “they almost inevitably do so by accepting a negative metric that other people are unwilling to accept.”When the NBA’s Houston Rockets began taking a higher proportion of (long-range) three-point shots, they were accepting the negative metric that they would miss more often. The pay-off was that shots they did convert came with a built-in premium. The trend was initially ridiculed—before being folded into orthodoxy. In 2015–16, only six out of 30 NBA teams took three-pointers in at least a third of their attempts. By 2020–21, 28 teams were doing it.Spain’s triumphant football team of 2008–12 sometimes lined up without a striker. Neglecting to select a specialist goalscorer brings risks—as pundits regularly reminded us by imploring Spain to pick a big strong lad up front to bang in the goals. In 2012, Spain preferred the extra midfielder—expanding creative opportunities, while tolerating the negative metric of not selecting a player focused exclusively on scoring. Spain won the final of the 2012 Euros 4–0, their third major title inside four years—revealing a shrewd trade-off. -
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