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July 25, 2022 at 11:41 pm #102232KateMoloneyParticipant
Curious to know how people come up with ideas for their MOC systems? What process do you go through to come up with a trading idea?
Sure, we can be taught what to think … eg try this rule, try that rule … but I believe how to think is a more critical skill than what to think.
I started my trading idea generation by looking at charts with indicators and testing those ideas (it was Craig who suggested this as a place to start).
I also bought the day trade system and tweaked it to be my own.Lately, I’ve started looking at the code for indicators and researching how indicators are formed, what they mean etc. I find this more inspiring than trying other peoples ideas for some reason.
Also about to dive into the following book as I have a goal to challenge my own way of thinking
Teach yourself how to Think
https://www.amazon.com.au/Teach-Yourself-Think-Edward-Bono-ebook/dp/B073RW2P76Curious to know what process/es you go through to come up with your trading ideas?
July 26, 2022 at 2:48 am #114961JulianCohenParticipantA good place to look is here:
https://school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=technical_indicators
I have gone through this list, coded them up and tested them on my own universes and with my own ranking ideas. Combine them, change the parameters. Try whatever you can to examine them for edge.
There’s a lot there and over the last few years I have come back to here, or pages similar and retested ideas I had already tested and discarded, but with a bit more experience I have found things that work which I didn’t find before.
So it’s a long process of constant research and development, often going over things a number of times at different points in your journey.
Another thing to think of when trying these ideas, is maybe running a moving average over the indicator eg MA(RSI(2),5) instead of just RSI….
Also try the setup but one or two days previous…eg Ref(3LowerLows,-1) Often a pattern works but the move is better the second day after the setup, when the stock has turned and is now going up with some momentum….that might give you a better edge.
July 26, 2022 at 4:02 am #114965KateMoloneyParticipantJulian Cohen post=13251 userid=5314 wrote:A good place to look is here:https://school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=technical_indicators
I have gone through this list, coded them up and tested them on my own universes and with my own ranking ideas. Combine them, change the parameters. Try whatever you can to examine them for edge.
There’s a lot there and over the last few years I have come back to here, or pages similar and retested ideas I had already tested and discarded, but with a bit more experience I have found things that work which I didn’t find before.
So it’s a long process of constant research and development, often going over things a number of times at different points in your journey.
Another thing to think of when trying these ideas, is maybe running a moving average over the indicator eg MA(RSI(2),5) instead of just RSI….
Also try the setup but one or two days previous…eg Ref(3LowerLows,-1) Often a pattern works but the move is better the second day after the setup, when the stock has turned and is now going up with some momentum….that might give you a better edge.
Thank you for sharing your wisdom Julian.
July 26, 2022 at 1:52 pm #114962AnonymousInactiveKate M post=13249 userid=5397 wrote:Curious to know how people come up with ideas for their MOC systems? What process do you go through to come up with a trading idea?I have this saved so I’ll post it here. A long time ago Said Bitar wrote something about “I’m not too creative, so I start with ranking”. That is some of the best advice I’ve gotten.
When I start system creation, I do the following:
- make my thesis (big idea)
- make my ranking (how to express my big idea)
- make my stretch (how sensitive is my big idea)
- make my filter (how much support does my idea need)
- add indicators to my filter if needed (any edge cases to be handled, such as don’t short biotech and don’t short something that was $2 one week ago)
If #1 is not done, there is no need to proceed to #2… and so on.
July 27, 2022 at 12:00 am #114968KateMoloneyParticipantSeth Lingafeldt post=13255 userid=5356 wrote:Kate M post=13249 userid=5397 wrote:Curious to know how people come up with ideas for their MOC systems? What process do you go through to come up with a trading idea?I have this saved so I’ll post it here. A long time ago Said Bitar wrote something about “I’m not too creative, so I start with ranking”. That is some of the best advice I’ve gotten.
When I start system creation, I do the following:
- make my thesis (big idea)
- make my ranking (how to express my big idea)
- make my stretch (how sensitive is my big idea)
- make my filter (how much support does my idea need)
- add indicators to my filter if needed (any edge cases to be handled, such as don’t short biotech and don’t short something that was $2 one week ago)
If #1 is not done, there is no need to proceed to #2… and so on.
Great share – thank you Said & Seth.
One thing that has always stuck with me is looking for either;
a) reversion from the mean (using RSI, MA etc to determine)
or
b) expansion in volatility (from Nick)
July 27, 2022 at 12:02 am #114969KateMoloneyParticipantAnother thing that really stuck with me (courtesy of Nick) was looking at indicators on a stand alone basis and only adding additional indicators if they *add value* to the over all system.
What I took from it is simple is best.
July 27, 2022 at 12:03 am #114970JulianCohenParticipantYou can look for a breakout too, just keep a smaller stretch on it…..you will miss ones that breakout and go straight up though so maybe no stretch…..
July 27, 2022 at 7:12 am #114963SaidBitarMember- Set your trading universe
- Set the Moving average duration , price filter and volume filter
- Set the ranking
- Set the stretch
Now you have a profitable MOC system.
The second stage will be to decrease the signal count and the randomness in the system. This can be done by adding some conditions to show short term weakness in long term or medium term uptrend.
This can be done using RSI, ADX, Close below x days, close below band (volatility band or percentage band), ROC and many others
this will help in decreasing the number of trades , drawdown, and randomness.
If the number of trades decreased a lot then increase the universe.
I prefer to add one condition but if needed I can add another one but not more than two.
After I reach results that I am happy with then I go back to the ranking and try to test other types of ranking. My default ranking is based on ROC but I will test other ideas such as ranking by price, ranking by ATR/C and whatever get’s in my head.Another idea is to develop multiple systems that look OK not great and combine them together sometimes the result is great. But you need to make sure that the trades generated from each system are not overlapped. Personally I am not a big fan of this, I can see the benefit out of it but sometimes it gives me the feeling that I am fooling around to place as many orders as possible.
July 31, 2022 at 12:06 am #114971KateMoloneyParticipantThank you for sharing Said.
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