I wish to try testing for Dual Momentum by Gary Antonacci and my doubts aren’t helped by the fact that I am not acquainted with the US markets.
I myself know these are dumb questions but questions nevertheless and my future self will thank me for asking. Please also be kind enough to answer questions that I haven’t even asked.
Here’s the trigger fest –
1) I’m using Vanguard total index (VTI) for US markets and iShares MSCI EAFE ETF (EFA) for global markets. Hope they’re both appropriate?
For absolute momentum, Gary used a 3 month T-bill and the one year return of either of the equity index had to beat that of T bill otherwise you invest in the T-bill.
I’m looking at BIL for the 3 month T bill and the chart is flat.
How does one use this as a filter in the backtest?
I read online that the 3 year T bill SHY could also be used. The price movements for SHY are also flat or negative in numerous years. It seems odd to me that the yearly returns of a circuit breaker are negative. Doesn’t that beat the purpose? Shall I use a defined numerical parameter instead for a minimum yearly return?
2) I anyway tried the testing (from 2005) using the following –
Stock filter – 200 DMA (the indices should be above this).
Scoring – 200 day ROC.
Max position – 1.
The rotation is weekly
With GLD, they give about 7% CAGR and 23% MDD
without GLD, it’s 5% and 30% respectively.
I feel I’m getting something/s massively wrong. Any suggestions?