Unlikely events happen (Black Swans). Here’s a few that occurred this month…
– SPX fell 10% in February this year. It’s down 10% since its all-time high (ATH) in September. Two falls of 10% from an ATH in one year has only happened once since 1960.
– When SPX has been in an uptrend (defined as above the 12-month ma), SPX has fallen more than 9% in one month two times in one year only 3 other times: in 1980, 1990 and 2000
– Daily volatility is in some respects the most extreme in one month since 1963.
– Stocks have fallen 15 days in October, the highest proportion since 1970
– the SPX has not risen on two consecutive days in more than 5 weeks; since the 1930s, this has happened less than 10 times, and in the last 30 years it has happened only 3 times
– The rapid fall has pushed weekly momentum (RSI) over the past 5 weeks to under 14. In the past 40 years, this has only happened during bear markets: 1981, 1987, 1990, 2001-02 and 2008. None of these happened within 5 weeks of an all-time high, which is the case this time.
– this month is the worst mid-term October since 1978 and the second worst since 1930
