ASX Returns - A Disturbing Picture? - The Chartist

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September 22, 2017 at 1:23 am #101705

Nick Radge
Keymaster

Here are the rolling 10-year returns (monthly) for the ASX since 1980.

Top chart is straight growth, lower chart is growth + dividends. Top chart shows that this year is the first year of a negative 10-year rolling return…

September 22, 2017 at 7:15 am #107692

Nick Radge
Keymaster

Here’s the longer term picture back to 1883. I don’t have monthly data, so this is 10-year rolling on an annual basis. Last time we have a negative was 1976, 1974 and prior to that 1899. This is growth only…

September 24, 2017 at 4:58 am #107694

ScottMcNab
Participant

I think it has been mentioned in the forums but (apart from the pain of the last 10 years) based on these findings is this not an exciting time to be getting into or loading up ASX TF systems ? I know the future can’t be predicted but if we base our decisions on probabilities then there would seem to be higher chance of a positive 10 year return than most times in the past. (Assuming you are not using a really long term system in which case I guess going long would actually be against the trend)

September 27, 2017 at 6:36 am #107705

Nick Radge
Keymaster

Time for a mega trend obviously…

http://www.afr.com/markets/the-asx-is-the-most-hated-market-in-asia-20170927-gypkbm
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