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March 7, 2016 at 8:48 pm #101434SaidBitarMember
Just wanted to create this topic for different questions so no need to create new topic for each question. please feel free to use.
March 7, 2016 at 8:55 pm #102936SaidBitarMemberone of the main keys for successful trading is diversification, in stocks there is not much to diversify since when the market starts going down correlation start going up. So the work around is to diversify with trading systems/styles.
at the moment i am planning to trade the following:
[ol]
[li]MRV system on daily time frame[/li]
[li]Trend following on weekly frame[/li]
[li]Momentum strategy in monthly time frame[/li]
[/ol]the question is how many portfolios is OK to trade at the same time, most of these systems are almost the same so i am using three different universes just not to overlap the signals but in case i found one or two profitable strategies is it OK to trade 5 portfolios at the same time or it is better to replace one by one?
thanksMarch 7, 2016 at 9:05 pm #102937Nick RadgeKeymasterGood topic Said – thanks for starting it.
My main goal is to trade my funds harder. Ensure excess capital is being used optimally. MR systems tend to cluster signals so you can be sitting on a pile of cash or a pile of positions – rarely anything in between.
To that end I trade 5 or so systems of which the two longer term ones are completely independent – one in the US and one in Australia.
However, the MR systems do have some overlap in both Aus and US. I designed them with this kind of thinking:
System #1: Has less signals, but less stretch so easier to get a fill
System #2: Has more signals, but more stretch so harder to get a fill.This kind of puts a ‘range’ on the weakness of a specific stock if you like.
Recently I have been working on an ETF specific strategy, the $SPXL which is the 3x $SPY. I’m doing something a little different, both as an exercise and a way to use that capital on other trades. I have 4 patterns back to 1993 with a total of 660 trades. This is a little on the thin side for my liking, HOWEVER, I’m also using an equity curve stop so if the patterns start to fail I can exit the pattern or system before it completely falls over.
Just an experiment and perhaps I can post some data up.
March 8, 2016 at 9:22 am #102940SaidBitarMemberNick Radge wrote:System #1: Has less signals, but less stretch so easier to get a fill
System #2: Has more signals, but more stretch so harder to get a fill.this is good to think about, it did not even think about the stretch to control the entries of the systems.
some stuff to test.
March 11, 2016 at 11:40 am #102944SaidBitarMemberRegarding Rotational systems since there is no buy / sell signals i am only using exploration to check the ranking of each stock in the universe and the position size that should be for each stock. Then i copy all to an excel sheet where i compare them to the open positions and check if the open positions are still in the top X rank other wise i will sell them and replace them with the new stocks that floated to the top.
So half of the job is done in Amibroker and the second half is in excel.
I am wondering if all are doing the same or if there is a way to do it in Amibroker directly.
i tried rewriting the system using StaticVarGenerateRanks so i can create buy and sell signal but the problem with this backtesting becomes very slow this is why i stayed with rotational and excel
March 18, 2016 at 6:46 am #102938TrentRothallParticipantI wondering if anyone uses the built in Monte Carlo Simulator in Amibroker for anything useful?
March 18, 2016 at 7:31 am #103346SaidBitarMemberThe normal Monte Carlo simulation is as if you gave the strategy to 1000 persons and they only have one thing to control either to enter the trade or not so the only thing that is changing between the runs is the selection of the trades. May be I will take signal 1,2,3,5,6,7 and you will take 1,3,4,5,7
the one that Amibroker is doing is just shuffling the trade orders (this is what I understood) so in one run it will be
1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8
1-3-4-5-2-6-7-8
1-2-4-3-5-6-7-8
and so onMarch 18, 2016 at 7:44 am #103347TrentRothallParticipantYeah ok
With our trade skipping MCS if you have the skip set at say 10% and you have 10 days in a row with 1 trade each day. 1 of those trades will be skipped wont it? even though there is no selection bias going on.
So the Amibroker MC wont skip the trades just shuffle the trades when there is more entries than open positions?
is that right?
ThanksMarch 18, 2016 at 7:59 am #103348SaidBitarMemberFrom the above link they are doing the following:
taking all the trades that you got them in a backtest run and start randomizing them there was no indication about taking any new signals. So they are the same signals just shuffle.A. Creating input set
A.1 Perform back-testing of your trading system to produce original set of N trades
B. Repeatedly (1000+ times)
B.1 pick randomly trades from the original trade list to produce new, random set of N trades (called ‘realization’)
This random set contains the same number of trades, they are ordered randomly and some original trades may be skipped and some used more than once (permutation with repetition, or random sampling with replacement).
Since number of unique realizations is N^N (so with just 100 input trades we have 100100 unique realizations), with sufficient number of trades (>100) the probability of picking identical sequence as original is virtually zero.
B.2 sequentially perform gain/loss calculation for each randomly picked trade, using position sizing defined by the user to produce system equity
B.3 record system equity in the distribution
C. Post-process
C.1 Process data obtained in B to generate distribution statistics and charts
March 18, 2016 at 8:56 am #103349TrentRothallParticipantI noticed this
Quote:It should be well noted that simulated trades during bootstrap are performed sequentially. If your original trading system traded multiple positions at once (so some or all of the trades are overlapped) it may result in smaller system drawdowns being reported by bootstrap test, because drawdowns from individual trades would occur sequentially (not in parallel as with overlapping trades).Basically it is only useful for systems with 1 position at a time??
March 18, 2016 at 12:03 pm #103350SaidBitarMemberNot exactly..
Imagine it as if it is trade generator. So it is taking the original trades and re arranging their order. what the downside of this is that it will show lower draw downs since normally drawdowns occur when you have x number of losing trades in a row. Assume that you have 10 losing trades in a row each lost 1.5% of your portfolio equity so the drawdown is certain number >= 15% but when the trades are shuffled may be 4 out of these 10 are put somewhere else then the losing trades became 6 in a row and the drawdown became >= 9% this is what they wanted to say.
March 18, 2016 at 12:06 pm #103352SaidBitarMemberFor me I use it as if it is ticker generator that is generating different universe each time the difference in the universes is the time shift. So normally the 18/3/2000 for APPL is aligned with the 18/3/2000 for MSFT what this will do is to push the MSFT x number of days in future or in past. so the trade on MSFT that would have been taken on 18/3/2000 will be taken on 1/6/2001 same position size and same profit % wise.
so it only give general overview on the performance of the system.
March 18, 2016 at 11:19 pm #103353TrentRothallParticipantYep got it, thanks for that Said
March 19, 2016 at 7:37 am #102939Nick RadgeKeymasterSaid, re rotational.
Are you saying you’re still ranking ALL stocks, even if the system is off?
Our momentum strategy exits ALL positions when the index filter turns down – it doesn’t exit individually in that scenario.
Why not just have a raw ranking for the universe and if the open trades remain in the top order then keep them, else exit. Don’t see why you’d need the excel.
March 20, 2016 at 3:02 pm #103354SaidBitarMemberNick Radge wrote:Are you saying you’re still ranking ALL stocks, even if the system is off?If the last day of the month is index filter was off then second day i will exit all positions
Nick Radge wrote:Don’t see why you’d need the excel.I was planning to use it to compare the currently held positions versus the new ranking to check for exits and for position size, then i added all of this to the exploration code
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