Nick Radge - Daily Journal

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January 18, 2016 at 3:12 am #101386

Nick Radge
Keymaster

MONDAY

Checked overnight markets, although being a Monday the currencies were only ones open. US holiday tonight.

Went through client emails found quite a lot of questions about the Double-7’s strategy that was posted overnight on our Social Media sites. (HERE)

Went back and looked at Double7’s strategy and noted that the exit mechanism is very weak. Exiting at a 7 day high can sometimes take quite a long time and therefore (1) would increase drawdowns, (2) increase exposure, especially in strong downward markets (3) make it quite uncomfortable to actually trade. Entry may be effective but exit needs work.

Checked in with our business mentor (yes, Trish and I use a mentor as well). Spent some time looking through new info.

Lunch in the office today

Welcomed Sue and Oliver into the Mentor program – both started today.

Last minute preparations for tonights Chartist member webinar on updated Portfolio tracking software

Prelim review of banking charts for ASX article due at the end of the week.

Run ASX mean reversion system – amend and place new orders. No US orders for tonight – market closed.

January 19, 2016 at 10:57 am #102338

Nick Radge
Keymaster

TUESDAY

No US trading so nothing to do
Fly to Sydney
Visit my Father
Run ASX mean reversion system – amend and place new orders
TV Studio for YMYC

January 20, 2016 at 8:08 am #102402

Nick Radge
Keymaster

WEDNESDAY

Early start to Sydney airport to beat peak hour traffic
Clear emails
Stalked by viewer from last nights TV show (his wife had to shoo him away)
Fly back to Noosa
Welcome Michael to Mentor Course
Skype and calls with students and prospective clients
Believe it or not found some time to test out a slightly different exit for my mean reversion system (will post something in the coming days)
Two exits snagging wins in BGA and MFG. Entered IFN right on the close
One order for ASX tomorrow.
Going to Jimeoin tonight for some comic relief

January 21, 2016 at 6:22 am #102419

Nick Radge
Keymaster

THURSDAY

No US positions
Write article for ASX on technical view of Australian Banks
Speak at Aust. Independent Retirement Assoc local meeting (65 attendees)
Running extensive Monte Carlo’s on Mean Reversion adjusted exit (will post results in coming days)
1 position closed in ASX. 1 new order placed for tomorrow. Very quiet all round.
Dinner party with old friend from Sydney Futures Exchange

January 22, 2016 at 5:20 am #102428

Nick Radge
Keymaster

Here’s what I’ve been working on today. This is one of my mean reversion systems, which currently generates an exit based on a close price to be executed the next open. I wanted to see if there was any specific benefit by exiting at the end of the day instead and removing the additional o/night exposure.

Column 1 is the system in its current format and the way its currently traded.
Columns 2, 3 and 4 are variants of the exit on close, specifically no index filter, index filter at 100-days and index filter at 200-days.

What are your thoughts?

January 22, 2016 at 7:57 am #102436

Anonymous
Inactive

My initial naive thought would be the current system is the better system overall.
The current system has the best MAR while still providing CAGR > 21%, along with the lowest number of trades giving the lowest brokerage costs. Perhaps a lot of the No Filter system’s increased CAGR is eaten up with additional brokerage costs?

January 22, 2016 at 9:34 pm #102438

Nick Radge
Keymaster

FRIDAY

No US trades
Upload new ‘Debugging’ lesson to MC
Write and upload new ‘Correlation’ lesson to MC
Finish running MCS for mean reversion with new exit

January 23, 2016 at 7:30 pm #102437

SaidBitar
Member

Normally i compare starting with MDD –> MAR –> Risk Reward Ratio –> CAR

so according to this the current system is the winner, even though i feel i can handle more MDD so i will leverage it . So even if CAR and MDD are doubled still looks good.

January 24, 2016 at 9:39 pm #102511

Nick Radge
Keymaster

SUNDAY

Early beach walk
Swim
Read (fiction)
Upload resources into Trading System Depository for MC forum
Upload Second Income Series into MC forum
Place ASX orders for Monday

January 26, 2016 at 9:43 pm #102339

Nick Radge
Keymaster

TUESDAY

No US orders
No ASX orders
Clear emails
Con Call with business mentor
Re-optimise mean reversion systems
Australia Day party (designated driver) :angry:

January 27, 2016 at 9:26 pm #102340

Nick Radge
Keymaster

WEDNESDAY

No US orders
No ASX orders – patience!
Call with Business mentor
Call with Mentor Student
Run ASX signals – one new buy signal for tomorrow

January 29, 2016 at 8:58 pm #102341

Nick Radge
Keymaster

FRIDAY

No US trades
No ASX Trades
Clear emails
Pick up boat after service (finally!)
Start researching pyramiding on Growth Portfolio
Run ASX mean reversion – 2 signals for Monday

February 1, 2016 at 6:45 am #102342

Nick Radge
Keymaster

MONDAY

No US trades.
MC calls
Research on Growth Portfolio pyramiding
MC call
2x ASX entries today (NEC & BAL)
No new entries for tomorrow

Growth Portfolio Pyramiding
I revisited this after concluding several years ago it didn’t add any value. Same conclusion again toady. Very slight increase in total return but only increasing workload and commission drag.

.

February 3, 2016 at 9:14 pm #102343

Nick Radge
Keymaster

WEDNESDAY

Still quiet on the trading front
No US positions in any portfolios
50% long in ASX trend following system – small caps holding up, although becoming more volatile
2 open positions in ASX mean reversion system and 5 new trades going today
ASX mean reversion system in 6% drawdown this year

February 4, 2016 at 9:01 pm #102344

Nick Radge
Keymaster

THURSDAY

No US positions

2 open trades in ASX mean reversion – 1 to exit on todays open
5 new orders tomorrow

Revisited enabling a stop loss on the mean reversion system. Researching MAE of trades. Looks like a 10% stop loss will inhibit the tail. More work today and over weekend.

Assess MC students first systems. Seeing some great coding!
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